Crystal Formation in Inflammation.

The formation and accumulation of crystalline material in tissues is a hallmark of many metabolic and inflammatory conditions. The discovery that the phase transition of physiologically soluble substances to their crystalline forms can be detected by the immune system and activate innate immune pathways has revolutionized our understanding of how crystals cause inflammation. It is now appreciated that crystals are part of the pathogenesis of numerous diseases, including gout, silicosis, asbestosis, and atherosclerosis. In this review we discuss current knowledge of the complex mechanisms of crystal formation in diseased tissues and their interplay with the nutrients, metabolites, and immune cells that account for crystal-induced inflammation.

A widely distributed gene cluster compensates for uricase loss in hominids.

Approximately 15% of US adults have circulating levels of uric acid above its solubility limit, which is causally linked to the disease gout. In most mammals, uric acid elimination is facilitated by the enzyme uricase. However, human uricase is a pseudogene, having been inactivated early in hominid evolution. Though it has long been known that uric acid is eliminated in the gut, the role of the gut microbiota in hyperuricemia has not been studied. Here, we identify a widely distributed bacterial gene cluster that encodes a pathway for uric acid degradation. Stable isotope tracing demonstrates that gut bacteria metabolize uric acid to xanthine or short chain fatty acids. Ablation of the microbiota in uricase-deficient mice causes severe hyperuricemia, and anaerobe-targeted antibiotics increase the risk of gout in humans. These data reveal a role for the gut microbiota in uric acid excretion and highlight the potential for microbiome-targeted therapeutics in hyperuricemia.

Mechanistic insights into the C-type lectin receptor CLEC12A-mediated immune recognition of monosodium urate crystal.

CLEC12A, a member of the C-type lectin receptor family involved in immune homeostasis, recognizes MSU crystals released from dying cells. However, the molecular mechanism underlying the CLEC12A-mediated recognition of MSU crystals remains unclear. Herein, we reported the crystal structure of the human CLEC12A-C-type lectin-like domain (CTLD) and identified a unique "basic patch" site on CLEC12A-CTLD that is necessary for the binding of MSU crystals. Meanwhile, we determined the interaction strength between CLEC12A-CTLD and MSU crystals using single-molecule force spectroscopy. Furthermore, we found that CLEC12A clusters at the cell membrane and seems to serve as an internalizing receptor of MSU crystals. Altogether, these findings provide mechanistic insights for understanding the molecular mechanisms underlying the interplay between CLEC12A and MSU crystals.

Current updates for hyperuricemia and gout in age-related macular degeneration.

The escalating prevalence of metabolic syndrome poses a significant public health challenge, particularly among aging populations, with metabolic dysfunctions contributing to pro-inflammatory states. In this review, we delved into the less recognized association between hyperuricemia (HUA), a manifestation of metabolic syndrome and a primary risk factor for gout, and age-related macular degeneration (AMD), a sight-threatening ailment predominantly affecting the elderly. In recent years, inflammation, particularly its involvement in complement pathway dysregulation, has gained prominence in AMD pathophysiology. The contradictory role of uric acid (UA) in intercellular and intracellular environments was discussed, highlighting its antioxidant properties in plasma and its pro-oxidant effects intracellularly. Emerging evidence suggests a potential link between elevated serum uric acid levels and choroid neovascularization in AMD, providing insights into the role of HUA in retinal pathologies. Various pathways, including crystal-induced and non-crystal-induced mechanisms, were proposed to indicate the need for further research into the precise molecular interactions. The implication of HUA in AMD underscores its potential involvement in retinal pathologies, which entails interdisciplinary collaboration for a comprehensive understanding of its impact on retina and related clinical manifestations.

Single-Cell Analysis in Blood Reveals Distinct Immune Cell Profiles in Gouty Arthritis.

Gout is a chronic disease caused by monosodium urate crystal deposition. Previous studies have focused on the resident macrophage, infiltrating monocyte, and neutrophil responses to monosodium urate crystal, yet the mechanisms of the potential involvement of other immune cells remain largely unknown. In this study, we enrolled seven gout patients and five age-matched healthy individuals and applied single-cell mass cytometry to study the distribution of immune cell subsets in peripheral blood. To our knowledge, our study reveals the immune cell profiles of gout at different stages for the first time. We identified many immune cell subsets that are dysregulated in gout and promote gouty inflammation, especially those highly expressing CCR4 and OX40 (TNFR superfamily member 4), including CCR4+OX40+ monocytes, CCR4+OX40+CD56high NK cells, CCR4+OX40+CD4+ NK T cells, and CCR4+CD38+CD4+ naïve T cells. Notably, the plasma levels of CCL17 and CCL22, measured by ELISA, increased in the acute phase of gout and declined in the interval. We also found a clue that Th2-type immune responses may participate in gout pathology. Moreover, the subset of granzyme B+ (GZMB+) CD38+ NK cells is positively correlated with serum urea acid level, and another two γδT subsets, GZMB+CD161+ γδT cells and GZMB+CCR5+ γδT cells, are negatively correlated with erythrocyte sedimentation rate. In sum, gouty arthritis is not a disease simply mediated by macrophages; multiple types of immune cell may be involved in the pathogenesis of the disease. Future research needs to shift attention to other immune cell subsets, such as NK cells and T cells, which will facilitate the identification of novel therapeutic targets.

Cutting Edge: Negative Regulation of Inflammasome Activation by TRAF1 Can Limit Gout.

Secretion of IL-1ß, a potent cytokine that plays a key role in gout pathogenesis, is regulated by inflammasomes. TRAF1 has been linked to heightened risk to inflammatory arthritis. In this article, we show that TRAF1 negatively regulates inflammasome activation to limit caspase-1 and IL-1ß secretion in human and mouse macrophages. TRAF1 reduces linear ubiquitination and subsequent oligomerization of the adapter protein, ASC. i.p. injection of monosodium urate crystals resulted in increased inflammatory cell infiltrates and IL-1ß production in Traf1 knockout mice compared with wild type littermates. In a model of monosodium urate crystal-induced gout, Traf1 knockout mice exhibited more swelling in the knee joints, increased infiltration of inflammatory cells, and higher expression of proinflammatory cytokines. In summary, this study identifies TRAF1 as a key regulator of IL-1ß production and a potential therapeutic target for inflammasome-driven diseases such as gout.

The role of acid-sensing ion channels in monosodium urate-induced gouty pain in mice.

Acid-sensing ion channels (ASICs) in dorsal root ganglion (DRG) neurons play an important role in inflammatory pain. The objective of this study is to observe the regulatory role of ASICs in monosodium urate (MSU) crystal-induced gout pain and explore the basis for ASICs in DRG neurons as a target for gout pain treatment. The gout arthritis model was induced by injecting MSU crystals into the ankle joint of mice. The circumference of the ankle joint was used to evaluate the degree of swelling; the von Frey filaments were used to determine the withdrawal threshold of the paw. ASIC currents and action potentials (APs) were recorded by patch clamp technique in DRG neurons. The results displayed that injecting MSU crystals caused ankle edema and mechanical hyperalgesia of the paw, which was relieved after amiloride treatment. The ASIC currents in DRG neurons were increased to a peak on the second day after injecting MSU crystals, which were decreased after amiloride treatment. MSU treatment increased the current density of ASICs in different diameter DRG cells. MSU treatment does not change the characteristics of AP. The results suggest that ASICs in DRG neurons participate in MSU crystal-induced gout pain.

Controversies and practical management of patients with gout and chronic kidney disease.

Uric acid is a toxin retained with advancing kidney disease. Clinical manifestations of hyperuricemia include gout and systemic inflammation that are associated with increased risk of cardiovascular mortality. As many as one-third of all patients with chronic kidney disease have a history of gout, yet <25% of these patients are effectively treated to target serum urate levels of ≤6 mg/dl. A major reason for ineffective management of gout and hyperuricemia is the complexity in managing these patients, with some medications contraindicated and others requiring special dosing, potential drug interactions, and other factors. Consequently, many nephrologists do not primarily manage gout despite it being a common complication of chronic kidney disease, leaving management to the primary physician or rheumatologist. We believe that kidney specialists should consider gout as a major complication of chronic kidney disease and actively manage it in their patients. Here, we present insights from nephrologists and rheumatologists for a team approach to gout management that includes the nephrologist.

A Polynesian-specific copy number variant encompassing the MICA gene associates with gout.

Gout is of particularly high prevalence in the Maori and Pacific (Polynesian) populations of Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ). Here, we investigated the contribution of common population-specific copy number variation (CNV) to gout in the Aotearoa NZ Polynesian population. Microarray-generated genome-wide genotype data from Aotearoa NZ Polynesian individuals with (n = 1196) and without (n = 1249) gout were analyzed. Comparator population groups were 552 individuals of European ancestry and 1962 of Han Chinese ancestry. Levels of circulating major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I polypeptide-related sequence A (MICA) were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Fifty-four CNV regions (CNVRs) appearing in at least 10 individuals were detected, of which seven common (>2%) CNVRs were specific to or amplified in Polynesian people. A burden test of these seven revealed associations of insertion/deletion with gout (odds ratio (OR) 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.80 [1.01; 3.22], P = 0.046). Individually testing of the seven CNVRs for association with gout revealed nominal association of CNVR1 with gout in Western Polynesian (Chr6: 31.36-31.45 Mb, OR = 1.72 [1.03; 2.92], P = 0.04), CNVR6 in the meta-analyzed Polynesian sample sets (Chr1: 196.75-196.92 Mb, OR = 1.86 [1.16; 3.00], P = 0.01) and CNVR9 in Western Polynesian (Chr1: 189.35-189.54 Mb, OR = 2.75 [1.15; 7.13], P = 0.03). Analysis of European gout genetic association data demonstrated a signal of association at the CNVR1 locus that was an expression quantitative trait locus for MICA. The most common CNVR (CNVR1) includes deletion of the MICA gene, encoding an immunomodulatory protein. Expression of MICA was reduced in the serum of individuals with the deletion. In summary, we provide evidence for the association of CNVR1 containing MICA with gout in Polynesian people, implicating class I MHC-mediated antigen presentation in gout.

Investigating gout flares: beyond a definition.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Gout flares are a paramount component of disease burden inflicted by gout onto the patient. Furthermore, they are included in the core domain set for long-term gout studies recognized by Outcome Measures in Rheumatology. Along with a validated classification criterion for gout, gout investigators have turned their efforts into defining and characterizing the gout flare. This brief review will summarize the efforts that have been done to define and characterize a gout flare in clinical studies. RECENT FINDINGS: Recent findings include a validated definition of a gout flare that has been utilized in novel clinical studies, use of technology to monitor for gout flares and their effects on patient life, and qualitative analyses into the disease burden that a patient undergoes. SUMMARY: Although guidelines for core outcome domains have been well established, there is question in methods of measuring and reporting gout flares in long-term trials. Furthermore, there is question as to the effectiveness of the agreed upon instruments' abilities to fully capture the disease burden experienced by patients with gout. A combination of outcome measurements including binary data (gout flare present or absent) along with a comprehensive measurement of disease burden over time would theoretically provide a more accurate description of the disease and serve as a basis for intervention development.

Health disparities in gout.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Gout, the most common type of inflammatory arthritis in the world, is characterized by painful episodes of arthritis linked by asymptomatic intercritical periods of hyperuricemia. Once characterized as a disease of wealthy white men, contemporary evidence demonstrates gout disproportionately afflicts racial/ethnic minorities, Indigenous populations and other underrepresented groups leading to significant health disparities. RECENT FINDINGS: Herein, we review the current literature reporting a higher incidence and prevalence of gout in racial/ethnic minorities and Indigenous populations, in addition to a growing gout burden reported in females. We also examine how these population are more likely to receive suboptimal treatment for flares and chronic phases of gout. Additionally, we examine biologic and social health determinants that may be contributing to these findings. SUMMARY: Racial/ethnic minorities, Indigenous populations, and females have experienced a disproportionate rise in the prevalence and incidence of gout in recent years, are more likely to seek acute medical care and are less likely to receive optimal long-term care for gout with urate lowering therapy. Mechanisms underpinning these findings appear to be multifactorial and include differences in social determinants of care and in some cases may be due to population differences in select biologic factors such as differences in age, sex, genetics.

Describing calcium pyrophosphate deposition: undoing the tower of Babel!

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: In 1977, McCarty astutely observed, 'The variety of names suggested for the condition associated with deposits of calcium pyrophosphate dihydrate crystals is exceeded only by the variations of its clinical presentation'. Fast forward to 2024, a standardized nomenclature for calcium pyrophosphate deposition (CPPD) is still lacking. This review aims to delineate the challenges in characterizing CPPD through nomenclature and imaging. RECENT FINDINGS: Despite the effort of nomenclature standardization in 2011 by the EULAR, confusion persists in the literature and clinical practice, with pseudo-forms and obscure abbreviations. The Gout, Hyperuricemia and Crystal-Associated Disease Network (G-CAN) has launched a project to redefine CPPD nomenclature and formulate a user-friendly language for effective communication with patients and other stakeholders. Additionally, recent advancements in imaging, have shed light on various aspects of the disorder. SUMMARY: Almost 60 years from the first description of a clinical manifestation related to calcium pyrophosphate crystals, a common language describing the disorder is still lacking. A redefined CPPD nomenclature, together with lay-friendly terminology, would significantly contribute to the uniformity of CPPD research, enhance public understanding and awareness and improve doctor-patient communication and therefore disease outcomes. Imaging can provide deep insights into CPPD elements, promoting comprehension of this disorder.

Monosodium Urate Crystal-Induced Pyroptotic Cell Death in Neutrophil and Macrophage Facilitates the Pathological Progress of Gout.

Monosodium urate (MSU) crystal deposition in joints can lead to the infiltration of neutrophils and macrophages, and their activation plays a critical role in the pathological progress of gout. However, the role of MSU crystal physicochemical properties in inducing cell death in neutrophil and macrophage is still unclear. In this study, MSU crystals of different sizes are synthesized to explore the role of pyroptosis in gout. It is demonstrated that MSU crystals induce size-dependent pyroptotic cell death in bone marrow-derived neutrophils (BMNs) and bone marrow-derived macrophages (BMDMs) by triggering NLRP3 inflammasome-dependent caspase-1 activation and subsequent formation of N-GSDMD. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the size of MSU crystal also determines the formation of neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) and aggregated neutrophil extracellular traps (aggNETs), which are promoted by the addition of interleukin-1ß (IL-1ß). Based on these mechanistic understandings, it is shown that N-GSDMD oligomerization inhibitor, dimethyl fumarate (DMF), inhibits MSU crystal-induced pyroptosis in BMNs and J774A.1 cells, and it further alleviates the acute inflammatory response in MSU crystals-induced gout mice model. This study elucidates that MSU crystal-induced pyroptosis in neutrophil and macrophage is critical for the pathological progress of gout, and provides a new therapeutic approach for the treatment of gout.

Systemic inflammatory cytokine profiles in patients with gout during flare, intercritical and treat-to-target phases: TNFSF14 as new biomarker.

INTRODUCTION: Untreated gout is characterised by monosodium urate (MSU) crystal accumulation responsible for recurrent flares that are commonly separated by asymptomatic phases. Both phases are inflammatory conditions of variable intensity. Gout flares are self-limited inflammatory reactions involving multiple mediators. This study aimed to characterise the inflammatory profiles of gout at different phases. METHODS: Using the Olink targeted proteomics, levels of 92 inflammation-related proteins were measured in plasma samples of a prospective gout population (GOUTROS), collected at gout flare (T1), the intercritical phase (T2) and after reaching the target serum urate level under urate-lowering therapy (T3). Results were validated in an independent cohort (OLT1177-05) with plasmas collected at T1 and T2. Ex vivo and in vitro experiments were performed to assess the inflammatory properties of new biomarkers. RESULTS: In total, 21 inflammatory new biomarkers were differentially expressed during the three time-points of gout disease. The levels of four of these proteins (interleukin 6 (IL-6), colony-stimulating factor 1, vascular endothelial growth factor A and tumour necrosis factor superfamily 14 (TNFSF14)) were increased during gout flare in an independent cohort. IL-6 and TNFSF14 had the highest fold change in expression during T1 versus T2 or T3. TNFSF14 was produced at the inflamed joint and enhanced the inflammatory response induced by lipopolysaccharide and MSU crystal stimulation. Conversely, TNFSF14 blockade reduced the inflammatory response. Additionally, single nucleotide polymorphisms of TNFSF14 affected the ability of myeloid cells to produce inflammatory cytokines. CONCLUSION: Gout flare involves multiple inflammatory mediators that may be used as potential therapeutic targets.

Changes in alcohol intake and serum urate changes: longitudinal analyses of annual medical examination database.

INTRODUCTION: Despite the established cross-sectional association between alcohol intake and serum urate (SU), its longitudinal association remains unknown. This study aimed to determine whether changes in alcohol intake have a clinically relevant association with SU change. METHOD: We conducted retrospective analyses using systematically collected annual medical examination data from October 2012 to October 2022 in a Japanese preventive medicine centre. The exposure was changes in alcohol intake between two consecutive visits. The association of SU changes with alcohol intake changes was estimated by mixed-effect linear regression with adjustment for relevant covariates. RESULTS: We analysed 63 486 participants (median age, 47.0 years; 55% women; 58.6% regular alcohol drinkers with a median of 1.4 drinks/day) with 370 572 visits. The median SU level was 5.3 mg/dL, and 506 (0.8%) participants had diagnoses of gout or hyperuricemia without medication use during the study period. Decreasing one daily alcohol intake had a clinically small association with SU changes (-0.019 (95% CI: -0.021 to -0.017) mg/dL). Beer had the largest association with SU (-0.036 (95% CI: -0.039 to -0.032) mg/dL for one beer decrease). Complete discontinuation of any alcohol from a mean of 0.8 drinks/day was associated with -0.056 mg/dL (95% CI: -0.068 to -0.043) decrease in SU; the association became larger in hyperuricemic participants (-0.110 mg/dL (95% CI: -0.154 to -0.066) for alcohol discontinuation from a mean of 1.0 drinks/day). CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed changes in alcohol intake had small associations with SU change at the general Japanese population level. Complete discontinuation of alcohol in hyperuricemic participants had only modest improvement in SU.

2023 EULAR recommendations on imaging in diagnosis and management of crystal-induced arthropathies in clinical practice.

OBJECTIVE: To formulate evidence-based recommendations and overarching principles on the use of imaging in the clinical management of crystal-induced arthropathies (CiAs). METHODS: An international task force of 25 rheumatologists, radiologists, methodologists, healthcare professionals and patient research partners from 11 countries was formed according to the EULAR standard operating procedures. Fourteen key questions on the role of imaging in the most common forms of CiA were generated. The CiA assessed included gout, calcium pyrophosphate deposition disease and basic calcium phosphate deposition disease. Imaging modalities included conventional radiography, ultrasound, CT and MRI. Experts applied research evidence obtained from four systematic literature reviews using MEDLINE, EMBASE and CENTRAL. Task force members provided level of agreement (LoA) anonymously by using a Numerical Rating Scale from 0 to 10. RESULTS: Five overarching principles and 10 recommendations were developed encompassing the role of imaging in various aspects of patient management: making a diagnosis of CiA, monitoring inflammation and damage, predicting outcome, response to treatment, guided interventions and patient education. Overall, the LoA for the recommendations was high (8.46-9.92). CONCLUSIONS: These are the first recommendations that encompass the major forms of CiA and guide the use of common imaging modalities in this disease group in clinical practice.

Systematic literature review to inform the EULAR recommendations for the use of imaging in crystal-induced arthropathies in clinical practice.

OBJECTIVE: To summarise current data regarding the use of imaging in crystal-induced arthropathies (CiAs) informing a European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology task force. METHODS: We performed four systematic searches in Embase, Medline and Central on imaging for diagnosis, monitoring, prediction of disease severity/treatment response, guiding procedures and patient education in gout, calcium pyrophosphate dihydrate deposition (CPPD) and basic calcium phosphate deposition (BCPD). Records were screened, manuscripts reviewed and data of the included studies extracted. The risk of bias was assessed by validated instruments. RESULTS: For gout, 88 studies were included. Diagnostic studies reported good to excellent sensitivity and specificity of dual-energy CT (DECT) and ultrasound (US), high specificity and lower sensitivity for conventional radiographs (CR) and CT. Longitudinal studies demonstrated sensitivity to change with regard to crystal deposition by US and DECT and inflammation by US and structural progression by CR and CT. For CPPD, 50 studies were included. Diagnostic studies on CR and US showed high specificity and variable sensitivity. There was a single study on monitoring, while nine assessed the prediction in CPPD. For BCPD, 56 studies were included. There were two diagnostic studies, while monitoring by CR and US was assessed in 43 studies, showing a reduction in crystal deposition. A total of 12 studies with inconsistent results assessed the prediction of treatment response. The search on patient education retrieved two studies, suggesting a potential role of DECT. CONCLUSION: This SLR confirmed a relevant and increasing role of imaging in the field of CiAs.

ML335 inhibits TWIK2 channel-mediated potassium efflux and attenuates mitochondrial damage in MSU crystal-induced inflammation.

BACKGROUND: Activation of the NLRP3 inflammasome is critical in the inflammatory response to gout. Potassium ion (K+) efflux mediated by the TWIK2 channel is an important upstream mechanism for NLRP3 inflammasome activation. Therefore, the TWIK2 channel may be a promising therapeutic target for MSU crystal-induced inflammation. In the present study, we investigated the effect of ML335, a known K2P channel modulator, on MSU crystal-induced inflammatory responses and its underlying molecular mechanisms. METHODS: By molecular docking, we calculated the binding energies and inhibition constants of five K2P channel modulators (Hydroxychloroquine, Fluoxetine, DCPIB, ML365 and ML335) with TWIK2. Intracellular potassium ion concentration and mitochondrial function were assessed by flow cytometry. The interaction between MARCH5 and SIRT3 was demonstrated by immunoprecipitation and Western blotting assay. MSU suspensions were injected into mouse paw and peritoneal cavity to induce acute gout model. RESULTS: ML335 has the highest binding energy and the lowest inhibition constant with TWIK2 in the five calculated K2P channel modulators. In comparison, among these five compounds, ML335 efficiently inhibited the release of IL-1ß from MSU crystal-treated BMDMs. ML335 decreased MSU crystal-induced K+ efflux mainly dependent on TWIK2 channel. More importantly, ML335 can effectively inhibit the expression of the mitochondrial E3 ubiquitin ligase MARCH5 induced by MSU crystals, and MARCH5 can interact with the SIRT3 protein. ML335 blocked MSU crystal-induced ubiquitination of SIRT3 protein by MARCH5. In addition, ML335 improved mitochondrial dynamics homeostasis and mitochondrial function by inhibiting MARCH5 protein expression. ML335 attenuated the inflammatory response induced by MSU crystals in vivo and in vitro. CONCLUSION: Inhibition of TWIK2-mediated K+ efflux by ML335 alleviated mitochondrial injury via suppressing March5 expression, suggesting that ML335 may be an effective candidate for the future treatment of gout.

Ultraprocessed food consumption, genetic predisposition, and the risk of gout: the UK Biobank study.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to examine the interactions between ultraprocessed food (UPF) consumption and genetic predisposition with the risk of gout. METHODS: This prospective cohort study analysed 181 559 individuals from the UK Biobank study who were free of gout at baseline. UPF was defined according to the NOVA classification. Assessment of genetic predisposition for gout was developed from a genetic risk score of 33 single nucleotide polymorphisms. Cox proportional hazards were used to estimate the associations between UPF consumption, genetic predisposition and the risk of gout. RESULTS: Among the 181 559 individuals in the study, 1558 patients developed gout over 1 648 167 person-years of follow-up. In the multivariable adjustment model, compared with the lowest quartile of UPF consumption, the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% CI of the highest UPF consumption was 1.16 (1.01, 1.33) for gout risk, and there was a non-linear correlation between UPF consumption and the development of gout. In substitution analyses, replacing 20% of the weight of UPF in the daily intake with an equal amount of unprocessed or minimally processed food resulted in a 13% lower risk of gout (HR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.79, 0.95). In the joint-effect analysis, the HR (95% CI) for gout was 1.90 (1.39, 2.60) in participants with high genetic predisposition and high UPF consumption, compared with those with low genetic predisposition and low UPF consumption. CONCLUSION: In summary, UPF consumption was found to be associated with a higher risk of gout, particularly in those participants with genetic predisposition to gout. Our study indicated that reducing UPF consumption is crucial for gout prevention.

A machine learning-based prediction model for gout in hyperuricemics: a nationwide cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a machine learning-based prediction model for identifying hyperuricemic participants at risk of developing gout. METHODS: A retrospective nationwide Israeli cohort study used the Clalit Health Insurance database of 473 124 individuals to identify adults 18 years or older with at least two serum urate measurements exceeding 6.8 mg/dl between January 2007 and December 2022. Patients with a prior gout diagnosis or on gout medications were excluded. Patients' demographic characteristics, community and hospital diagnoses, routine medication prescriptions and laboratory results were used to train a risk prediction model. A machine learning model, XGBoost, was developed to predict the risk of gout. Feature selection methods were used to identify relevant variables. The model's performance was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC AUC) and precision-recall AUC. The primary outcome was the diagnosis of gout among hyperuricemic patients. RESULTS: Among the 301 385 participants with hyperuricemia included in the analysis, 15 055 (5%) were diagnosed with gout. The XGBoost model had a ROC-AUC of 0.781 (95% CI 0.78-0.784) and precision-recall AUC of 0.208 (95% CI 0.195-0.22). The most significant variables associated with gout diagnosis were serum uric acid levels, age, hyperlipidemia, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and diuretic purchases. A compact model using only these five variables yielded a ROC-AUC of 0.714 (95% CI 0.706-0.723) and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 95%. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this cohort study suggest that a machine learning-based prediction model had relatively good performance and high NPV for identifying hyperuricemic participants at risk of developing gout.