The changing landscape of both causes and locations of death in a regional HIV population 2010-2021.

BACKGROUND: Although HIV-related deaths among people with HIV have dramatically decreased, deaths from other medical conditions and non-medical events have increased. The location of death among people with HIV remains underreported. OBJECTIVES: We reviewed the deaths, causes of death, and reported location of death (i.e. within or outside of medical settings) of all people with HIV with the Southern Alberta Cohort, Calgary, Canada, between 1 January 2010 and 1 January 2022. METHODS: This was a retrospective longitudinal cohort study reviewing all deaths within a comprehensive geographically defined HIV cohort over 11 years. RESULTS: Deaths from HIV-related causes decreased from 52% of all deaths in 2010 to 14% in 2021. In 2021, non-HIV medical deaths increased from 38% to 44%, and non-medical deaths (e.g. violence, suicide, drug overdose) increased from 0.5% to 39%. Of non-medical deaths, 67% resulted from substance use/overdose. Overall, deaths in any medical setting decreased from 91% in 2010 to 39% in 2021; 61% of all deaths occurred in a medical setting (e.g. hospital/emergency department or supported/long-term/hospice care), 27% in a residence, and 9% in the community. CONCLUSION: The shifting causes of death (i.e. fewer HIV-related deaths, more overdose deaths) and location of death (i.e. fewer in medical settings, more at home/in the community) requires close monitoring so future resources can be matched to predicted patient needs.

Trends in the burden and determinants of HIV in the Asia-Pacific region (1990-2019): An age-period-cohort analysis of the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study.

Although the burden of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the Asia-Pacific region is increasingly severe, comprehensive evidence of the burden of HIV is scarce. We aimed to report the burden of HIV in people aged 15-79 years from 1990 to 2019 using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. We analyzed rates of age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (ASDR), age-standardized mortality (ASMR), and age-standardized incidence (ASIR) in our age-period-cohort analysis by sociodemographic index (SDI). According to HIV reports in 2019 from 29 countries in the Asia-Pacific region, the low SDI group in Papua New Guinea had the highest ASDR, ASMR, and ASIR. From 1990 to 2019, the ASDR, ASIR, and ASMR of persons with acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) increased in 21 (72%) of the 29 countries in the Asia-Pacific region. During the same period, the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of AIDS patients in the low SDI group in the region grew the fastest, particularly in Nepal. The incidence of HIV among individuals aged 20-30 years in the low-middle SDI group was higher than that of those in the other age groups. In 2019, unsafe sex was the main cause of HIV-related ASDR in the region's 29 countries, followed by drug use. The severity of the burden of HIV/AIDS in the Asia-Pacific region is increasing, especially among low SDI groups. Specific public health policies should be formulated based on the socioeconomic development level of each country to alleviate the burden of HIV/AIDS.

Anemia and Iron Supplementation in Relation to Viral Load and Mortality among 70,442 People Living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Anemia may be associated with poor clinical outcomes among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (PLHIV) despite highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). There are concerns that iron supplementation may be unsafe to prevent and treat anemia among PLHIV. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to evaluate the associations of anemia and iron supplementation with mortality and viral load among PLHIV in Tanzania. METHODS: We analyzed data from a cohort of 70,442 nonpregnant adult PLHIV in Tanzania conducted between 2015 and 2019. Regression models evaluated the relationships between anemia severity and iron supplement use with mortality and unsuppressed HIV-1 viral load among all participants and stratified by whether participants were initiating or continuing HAART. RESULTS: Anemia was associated with an increased risk of mortality and unsuppressed viral load for participants who initiated or continued HAART. Iron supplement use was associated with reduced mortality risk but also had a greater risk of an unsuppressed viral load among participants continuing HAART. There was no association of iron supplement use with mortality, and unsuppressed viral load among PLHIV that were initiating HAART. There was a stronger negative association between iron supplement use and the risk of having an unsuppressed viral load among participants with stage III/IV disease compared with stage I/II disease. CONCLUSIONS: Anemia is associated with increased risk of mortality and unsuppressed viral load, but the benefits and safety of iron supplements appear to differ for those initiating compared with continuing ART as well as by HIV disease severity.

The impact of immunosuppression on the mortality and hospitalization of Monkeypox: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the 2022 outbreak.

BACKGROUND: Limited data is available regarding the severity and mortality of Mpox in individuals with immunocompromised conditions. Therefore, we performed this meta-analysis to understand the impact of HIV- or non-HIV-associated immunosuppression on the severity of Mpox requiring hospitalization and mortality. METHODS: A thorough literature search was performed from 2022 up to January 2024. The results were presented as odds ratios (ORs). We only included patients who required hospitalization for severity rather than isolation. RESULTS: A total of 34 studies were included in this analysis. Our analysis did not find a significant difference in the hospitalization risk between HIV-positive individuals and those who were HIV-negative (OR = 1.03; P = 0.85; 7 studies; CD4 count of fewer than 200 cells/µL was less than 0.5% across all studies). Patients with a CD4 count lower than 200 cells/µL or an unsuppressed RNA viral load (> 200 copies/ml) had a significantly higher hospitalization risk (OR = 5.3, P < 0.001) and (OR = 3, P < 0.001), respectively. Most of the reported deaths were reported in patients with HIV with CD4 counts below 200 cells/µL, with some fatal cases occurring in non-HIV immunosuppressed patients, particularly organ transplant recipients. Based on the autopsy findings, Mpox was confirmed in multiple organs, particularly the digestive tract, lung, and testes. Furthermore, some studies documented cases of death that were suspected to be related to hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH) and immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS). Most of the death reports showed concomitant non-Mpox infections at the time of hospitalization and death CONCLUSIONS: Our finding shows that Mpox acts as an opportunistic pathogen in immunocompromised individuals. These individuals should be prioritized for early care and closely monitored for signs of deteriorating clinical conditions. Clinical manifestations and autopsy findings strongly suggest Mpox dissemination to multiple organs, particularly the digestive tract, and lungs. However, the presence of concomitant non-Mpox infections complicates the assessment of the attribution of Mpox to death. Caution should be exercised when interpreting data suggesting poorer outcomes in individuals with non-HIV immunosuppression, as current evidence is scarce and further research is needed.

The predictive accuracy of machine learning for the risk of death in HIV patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Early prediction of mortality in individuals with HIV (PWH) has perpetually posed a formidable challenge. With the widespread integration of machine learning into clinical practice, some researchers endeavor to formulate models predicting the mortality risk for PWH. Nevertheless, the diverse timeframes of mortality among PWH and the potential multitude of modeling variables have cast doubt on the efficacy of the current predictive model for HIV-related deaths. To address this, we undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis, aiming to comprehensively assess the utilization of machine learning in the early prediction of HIV-related deaths and furnish evidence-based support for the advancement of artificial intelligence in this domain. METHODS: We systematically combed through the PubMed, Cochrane, Embase, and Web of Science databases on November 25, 2023. To evaluate the bias risk in the original studies included, we employed the Predictive Model Bias Risk Assessment Tool (PROBAST). During the meta-analysis, we conducted subgroup analysis based on survival and non-survival models. Additionally, we utilized meta-regression to explore the influence of death time on the predictive value of the model for HIV-related deaths. RESULTS: After our comprehensive review, we analyzed a total of 24 pieces of literature, encompassing data from 401,389 individuals diagnosed with HIV. Within this dataset, 23 articles specifically delved into deaths during long-term follow-ups outside hospital settings. The machine learning models applied for predicting these deaths comprised survival models (COX regression) and other non-survival models. The outcomes of the meta-analysis unveiled that within the training set, the c-index for predicting deaths among people with HIV (PWH) using predictive models stands at 0.83 (95% CI: 0.75-0.91). In the validation set, the c-index is slightly lower at 0.81 (95% CI: 0.78-0.85). Notably, the meta-regression analysis demonstrated that neither follow-up time nor the occurrence of death events significantly impacted the performance of the machine learning models. CONCLUSIONS: The study suggests that machine learning is a viable approach for developing non-time-based predictions regarding HIV deaths. Nevertheless, the limited inclusion of original studies necessitates additional multicenter studies for thorough validation.

The effect of late presentation on HIV related mortality among adolescents in public hospitals of north showa zone Oromiya, Ethiopia; 2022: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Late human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnosis is the most prominent cause of HIV/AIDS-related mortality and also increases the risk of transmission and spread of the disease in society. Adolescents are the most vulnerable population's age group for HIV infection in several settings, but expanding access to early HIV testing remains a challenge. Consequently, a significant proportion of adolescents are still dying of HIV-related causes, and the current study aimed at assessing the effect of late presentation on HIV-related mortality among adolescents living with HIV. METHODS: An institutional-based retrospective cohort study was conducted from August 21-November 21, 2022, at selected public hospitals in the North Showa Zone of Oromiya, Ethiopia. All adolescents living with HIV who had received no ART and presented for ART follow-up at public hospitals from September 1, 2012, to August 31, 2021, were included in the study. Data entry was done by Epi-data version 3.1.1 software and exported to Stata version 16 for further analysis. Both bi-variable and multivariable analyses were performed using the Cox proportional hazard model to compare the HIV-related mortality of early and late-presented adolescents using an adjusted hazard ratio at a 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: A total of 341 medical records of adolescents were included in the study, contributing an overall incidence rate of 3.15 (95% CI: 2.21-4.26) deaths per 100 person-years of observation throughout the total follow-up period of 1173.98 person-years. Adolescents with late presentation for HIV care had three times the higher hazard of mortality (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 3.00; 95% CI: 1.22-7.37) as compared to those with early presentation for HIV/AIDS care. Adolescents within the age range of 15-19 years old (aHR = 3.56; 95% CI: 1.44-8.77), rural residence (aHR = 2.81; 95% CI: 1.39-5.68), poor adherence to ART (aHR = 3.17; 95% CI: 1.49-6.76), and being anemic (aHR = 3.09; 95% CI: 1.52-6.29) were other independent predictors of HIV-related mortality. CONCLUSION: The study found a substantial link between HIV late presentation to care and mortality among adolescents. Residence, age, antiretroviral therapy (ART) medication adherence, and anemia status were also found to be other independent predictors of HIV-related mortality. To achieve the ultimate aim of lowering mortality among adolescents living with HIV, rigorous emphasis must be placed on early presentation for HIV/AIDS care. In addition, counseling on adherence and prompt diagnosis and treatment of anemia are highly recommended to reduce mortality.

Mortality and its predictors among human immunodeficiency virus-infected children younger than 15 years receiving antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Despite antiretroviral treatment (ART), the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) continues to pose a considerable health burden in resource-poor countries. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to determine the pooled incidence density of mortality and identify potential predictors among HIV-infected children receiving ART, from studies conducted in various parts of Ethiopia. METHODS: A comprehensive database search was made in Excerpta Medica, PubMed, Web of Science, African Journals Online, Google Scholar, and Scopus. We reported results following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis 2020. Excel Spreadsheet and STATA Version 14 software were used for data abstraction and meta-analysis, respectively. Statistical heterogeneity among studies was assessed using I2 statistics. Meta-regression and subgroup analysis were performed to further explore the sources of statistical heterogeneity. Moreover, publication bias and a leave-out-one sensitivity analysis were performed. RESULTS: Twenty-two articles involving 8,731 participants met inclusion criteria and were included. The pooled incidence density of mortality was 3.08 (95% confidence interval (CI), 2.52 to 3.64) per 100 child years. Predictors of mortality were living in rural areas (hazard ratio (HR), 2.18 [95% CI, 1.20 to 3.98]), poor adherence to ART (HR, 2.85 [ 95% CI, 1.39 to 5.88]), failure to initiate co-trimoxazole preventive therapy (HR, 2.16 [95% CI, 1.52 to 3.07]), anemia (HR, 2.28 [95% CI, 1.51 to 3.45]), opportunistic infections (HR, 1.52 [ 95% CI, 1.15 to 2.00]), underweight (HR, 1.74 [95% CI, 1.26 to 2.41]), wasting (HR, 2.54 [95% CI, 1.56 to 4.16]), stunting (HR, 2.02 [95% CI, 1.63 to 2.51]), World Health Organization classified HIV clinical stages III and IV (HR, 1.71 [95% CI, 1.42 to 2.05]), and Nevirapine-based regimens (HR, 3.91 [95% CI, 3.09 to 4.95]). CONCLUSIONS: This study found that the overall mortality rate among HIV-infected children after ART initiation was high. Therefore, high-level commitment and involvement of responsible caregivers, healthcare providers, social workers, and program managers are of paramount importance to identify these risk factors and thus enhance the survival of HIV-infected children receiving ART.

Demographic and clinical factors correlated with clinical outcomes among people with HIV treated by antiretroviral therapy: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: As is known, CD4 cell count is a significant parameter predicting HIV progression, opportunistic infections and death in HIV-infected individuals, as well was an important indicator for initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART). In China's National Free Antiretroviral Treatment Program, people with HIV (PWH) on ART can receive a CD4 count test at least once every six months. Importantly, the baseline CD4 count (before ART initiation) is significantly correlated with ART and even prognosis, but the influence of the peak CD4 cell count on ART and/or clinical outcomes is still unknown. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted among 7965 PWH who received ART from October 2003 to September 2022 at Yunnan Infectious Disease Hospital. Clinical features and laboratory data were collected and analyzed by Chi-square test, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. After elimination of confounding variables, multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to identify survival-related factors. RESULTS: Of a total of 7965 PWH in the ART treatment cohort who met the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 7939 were finally included in the subsequent analyses. First, it was found that the proportion of clinical variables, including sex, age distribution, interval from diagnosis to ART initiation, marital status, and others, was significantly different between the living and dead groups (P < 0.05). Impressively, significantly more PWH had the higher level of baseline, peak and recent CD4 cell counts in the living group compared to those in the dead group. Due to multicollinearity effect, after excluding confounders, the following factors were found to be significantly associated with mortality by multivariate Cox regression analysis: (1) male sex (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.268 [1.032, 1.559]; P = 0.024); (2) time from HIV confirmation to ART initiation ≥ 6 months (HR = 1.962 [1.631, 2.360]; P < 0.001); (3) peak CD4 cell count: Peak CD4 < 100cells/µL group (HR = 16.093 [12.041, 21.508]; P < 0.001), 100cells/µL ≤ x < 200cells/µL group (HR = 7.904 [6.148, 10.160]; P < 0.001), 200cells/µL ≤ x < 350cells/µL group (HR = 3.166 [2.519, 3.980]; P < 0.001), 350cells/µL ≤ x < 500cells/µL group (HR = 1.668 [1.291, 2.155]; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Interestingly, patients in male, time from HIV confirmation to ART initiation ≥ 6 months, or peak CD4 count < 500 cells/µl had inferior clinical outcomes, in other word, a lower peak CD4 cell count significantly increased the risk of death, and peak CD4 cell was independent in predicting the overall survival of PWH. It is important to promote "early diagnosis and treatment of HIV" and regularly monitor CD4 levels in HIV/AIDS to evaluate the efficacy of ART and immune reconstitution, and optimize the ART regimen in time to further reduce the mortality of PWH.

Characteristics and outcomes of people living with HIV hospitalised at tertiary healthcare institutions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico City.

BACKGROUND: While existing research on people living with HIV (PWH) during the COVID-19 pandemic primarily focused on their clinical outcomes, a critical gap remains in understanding the implications of COVID-19 delivery of in-hospital care services to PWH. Our study aimed to describe the characteristics and outcomes of PWH hospitalised during 2020 in Mexico City, comparing patients admitted due to COVID-19 vs. patients admitted due to other causes. METHODS: All PWH hospitalised for ≥ 24 h at four institutions in Mexico City from January 1st to December 31st, 2020 were included. Patients were classified into two groups according to the leading cause of their first hospitalisation: COVID-19 or non-COVID-19. Characteristics among groups were compared using chi-square and Kruskal tests. A Cox model was used to describe the risk of death after hospitalisation and the characteristics associated with this outcome. Mortality and hospitalisation events were compared to data from 2019. RESULTS: Overall, we included 238 PWH hospitalised in 2020. Among them, 42 (18%) were hospitalised due to COVID-19 and 196 (82%) due to non-COVID-19 causes, mainly AIDS-defining events (ADE). PWH hospitalised due to COVID-19 had higher CD4 + cell counts (380 cells/mm3 [IQR: 184-580] vs. 97 cells/mm3 [IQR: 34-272], p < 0.01) and a higher proportion of virologic suppression (VS) compared to those hospitalised due to non-COVID-19 causes (92% vs. 55%, p < 0.01). The adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for AIDS was 3.1 (95%CI: 1.3-7.2). COVID-19 was not associated with death (aHR 0.9 [95%CI: 0.3-2.9]). Compared to 2019, mortality was significantly higher in 2020 (19% vs. 9%, p < 0.01), while hospitalisations decreased by 57%. CONCLUSIONS: PWH with COVID-19 had higher VS and CD4 + cell counts and lower mortality compared to those hospitalised due to non-COVID-19-related causes, who more often were recently diagnosed with HIV and had ADEs. Most hospitalisations and deaths in 2020 in PWH were related to advanced HIV disease. The increased mortality and decreased hospitalisations of PWH during 2020 evidence the impact of the interruption of health services delivery for PWH with advanced disease due to the pandemic. Our findings highlight the challenges faced by PWH during 2020 in a country where advanced HIV remains a concern.

The impact of HIV/AIDS on marriage in the early years of the epidemic.

The advent of the HIV/AIDS crisis transformed the desirability of committed heterosexual relationships. This paper employs a difference-in-differences approach to investigate the impact of the HIV/AIDS crisis on marriage rates. By using HIV/AIDS death rates as a proxy for HIV incidence, the study exploits county-level variations in HIV/AIDS mortality and finds that counties with higher HIV/AIDS death rates experienced larger gains in marriage rates in the early years of the epidemic. Estimates suggest that the virus increased marriage rates by approximately 0.9% in the early years of the virus (1981-1988).

Methylome-wide Analysis of Chronic HIV Infection Reveals Five-Year Increase in Biological Age and Epigenetic Targeting of HLA.

HIV-infected individuals are living longer on antiretroviral therapy, but many patients display signs that in some ways resemble premature aging. To investigate and quantify the impact of chronic HIV infection on aging, we report a global analysis of the whole-blood DNA methylomes of 137 HIV+ individuals under sustained therapy along with 44 matched HIV- individuals. First, we develop and validate epigenetic models of aging that are independent of blood cell composition. Using these models, we find that both chronic and recent HIV infection lead to an average aging advancement of 4.9 years, increasing expected mortality risk by 19%. In addition, sustained infection results in global deregulation of the methylome across >80,000 CpGs and specific hypomethylation of the region encoding the human leukocyte antigen locus (HLA). We find that decreased HLA methylation is predictive of lower CD4 / CD8 T cell ratio, linking molecular aging, epigenetic regulation, and disease progression.

Survival status and its predictors among undernourished children on antiretroviral therapy in Bahir Dar city, Northwest Ethiopia, 2010 - 2020, a multicenter retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In environments with limited resources, undernutrition is a serious public health risk. Its dual relationship to human immunodeficiency virus infection (HIV) leads to crises in a child's physical, emotional, social, and economic spheres of life. Nevertheless, little research has been done on the survival rate and risk factors that lead to poor survival outcomes in undernourished children receiving antiretroviral therapy. This study sought to evaluate survival status and its predictors among undernourished children on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in public health facilities, Bahir Dar city, September 1, 2010 - December 31, 2020. METHODS: An institution-based retrospective cohort study design was used among 414 study participants from September 1, 2010 - December 31, 2020. A simple random sampling method was applied to select study participants. All collected data were entered into epi data version 4.6 and exported to STATA version 14.0 for analysis. Each independent predictor variable with a p-value < 0.05 in the multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: The overall incidence of mortality was 11.6 deaths per 1000 child year observation (95%CI: 7.7- 17.5). Baseline weight for age < -3 Z score (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 4.9, 95% CI: 1.30-18.98), height for age < -3 Z score (AHR = 4.34, 95%CI 1.13-16.6), cotrimoxazole prophylaxis given (AHR = 0.27, 95%CI 0.08-0.87), hemoglobin level < 10 g/dl (AHR = 3.7, 95%CI 1.1-12.7), CD4 cells < threshold (AHR = 4.86, 95%CI 1.9-12.7), and WHO clinical disease stage III and IV (AHR = 8.1, 95%CI 1.97-33) were found independent predictors of mortality. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION: The incidence of mortality was determined in the study to be 11.6 per 1000 child years. Mortality was predicted by severe stunting, severe underweight, a low hemoglobin level, a low CD4 count, and WHO clinical stages III and IV. But the risk of death is reduced by starting cotrimoxazole preventative therapy early. The risk factors that result in a low survival status should be the primary focus of all concerned bodies, and early cotrimoxazole preventive treatment initiation is strongly recommended.

Evaluating Clinic-Based Interventions to Reduce Racial Differences in Mortality Among People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Mortality remains elevated among Black versus White adults receiving human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care in the United States. We evaluated the effects of hypothetical clinic-based interventions on this mortality gap. METHODS: We computed 3-year mortality under observed treatment patterns among >40 000 Black and >30 000 White adults entering HIV care in the United States from 1996 to 2019. We then used inverse probability weights to impose hypothetical interventions, including immediate treatment and guideline-based follow-up. We considered 2 scenarios: "universal" delivery of interventions to all patients and "focused" delivery of interventions to Black patients while White patients continued to follow observed treatment patterns. RESULTS: Under observed treatment patterns, 3-year mortality was 8% among White patients and 9% among Black patients, for a difference of 1 percentage point (95% confidence interval [CI], .5-1.4). The difference was reduced to 0.5% under universal immediate treatment (95% CI, -.4% to 1.3%) and to 0.2% under universal immediate treatment combined with guideline-based follow-up (95% CI, -1.0% to 1.4%). Under the focused delivery of both interventions to Black patients, the Black-White difference in 3-year mortality was -1.4% (95% CI, -2.3% to -.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical interventions, particularly those focused on enhancing the care of Black patients, could have significantly reduced the mortality gap between Black and White patients entering HIV care from 1996 to 2019.

Systematic or Test-Guided Treatment for Tuberculosis in HIV-Infected Adults.

BACKGROUND: In regions with high burdens of tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), many HIV-infected adults begin antiretroviral therapy (ART) when they are already severely immunocompromised. Mortality after ART initiation is high in these patients, and tuberculosis and invasive bacterial diseases are common causes of death. METHODS: We conducted a 48-week trial of empirical treatment for tuberculosis as compared with treatment guided by testing in HIV-infected adults who had not previously received ART and had CD4+ T-cell counts below 100 cells per cubic millimeter. Patients recruited in Ivory Coast, Uganda, Cambodia, and Vietnam were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to undergo screening (Xpert MTB/RIF test, urinary lipoarabinomannan test, and chest radiography) to determine whether treatment for tuberculosis should be started or to receive systematic empirical treatment with rifampin, isoniazid, ethambutol, and pyrazinamide daily for 2 months, followed by rifampin and isoniazid daily for 4 months. The primary end point was a composite of death from any cause or invasive bacterial disease within 24 weeks (primary analysis) or within 48 weeks after randomization. RESULTS: A total of 522 patients in the systematic-treatment group and 525 in the guided-treatment group were included in the analyses. At week 24, the rate of death from any cause or invasive bacterial disease (calculated as the number of first events per 100 patient-years) was 19.4 with systematic treatment and 20.3 with guided treatment (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.63 to 1.44). At week 48, the corresponding rates were 12.8 and 13.3 (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.67 to 1.40]). At week 24, the probability of tuberculosis was lower with systematic treatment than with guided treatment (3.0% vs. 17.9%; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.15; 95% CI, 0.09 to 0.26), but the probability of grade 3 or 4 drug-related adverse events was higher with systematic treatment (17.4% vs. 7.2%; adjusted hazard ratio 2.57; 95% CI, 1.75 to 3.78). Serious adverse events were more common with systematic treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Among severely immunosuppressed adults with HIV infection who had not previously received ART, systematic treatment for tuberculosis was not superior to test-guided treatment in reducing the rate of death or invasive bacterial disease over 24 or 48 weeks and was associated with more grade 3 or 4 adverse events. (Funded by the Agence Nationale de Recherches sur le Sida et les Hépatites Virales; STATIS ANRS 12290 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02057796.).

The burden of anemia among Chinese HIV-infected patients following the initiation of antiretroviral therapy in the treat-all era: a nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: To assess the prevalence of anemia before and after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation and to identify impact of anemia on mortality among HIV-infected patients in China during the Treat-All era. METHODS: All HIV-infected patients who newly initiated ART between January 1, 2017 and December 31, 2020 were enrolled and followed up to December 31, 2021 in China. We analyzed the prevalence of anemia before and after ART initiation. Generalized estimating equations were fitted to determine factors associated with anemia after ART. Time-dependent cox proportional hazards models were performed to estimate the effect of anemia on death. RESULTS: Of 436,658 patients at the baseline of ART initiation, the overall prevalence of anemia was 28.6%. During a median 2.65 (IQR: 1.80-3.51) years of follow-up after ART initiation, 376,325 (86.2%) patients had at least one Hb measurement (a total of 955,300 hemoglobin measurements). The annual prevalence of anemia after ART was 17.0%, 14.1%, 13.4%, 12.6% and 12.7%, respectively. Being anemic at the baseline of ART initiation (adjusted odds ratio, aOR = 6.80, 95% confidence interval (CI): 6.67-6.92) was the strongest factor associated with anemia after ART. Anemia status after ART showed a strong association with death after multivariable adjustment (mild anemia: adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 2.65, 95% CI: 2.55-2.76; moderate anemia: aHR = 4.60; 95% CI:4.40-4.81; severe anemia: aHR = 6.41; 95% CI:5.94-6.91). CONCLUSIONS: In the era of ART universal access, pre-ART anemia was common among HIV-infected patients. Notably, a certain proportion of anemia still persisted after ART, and was significantly associated with death. We recommend strengthening the monitoring of patients at risk of anemia, especially in patients with baseline anemia or during the first year of ART, and timely treatment for correcting anemia.

HIV Testing and Treatment with the Use of a Community Health Approach in Rural Africa.

BACKGROUND: Universal antiretroviral therapy (ART) with annual population testing and a multidisease, patient-centered strategy could reduce new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections and improve community health. METHODS: We randomly assigned 32 rural communities in Uganda and Kenya to baseline HIV and multidisease testing and national guideline-restricted ART (control group) or to baseline testing plus annual testing, eligibility for universal ART, and patient-centered care (intervention group). The primary end point was the cumulative incidence of HIV infection at 3 years. Secondary end points included viral suppression, death, tuberculosis, hypertension control, and the change in the annual incidence of HIV infection (which was evaluated in the intervention group only). RESULTS: A total of 150,395 persons were included in the analyses. Population-level viral suppression among 15,399 HIV-infected persons was 42% at baseline and was higher in the intervention group than in the control group at 3 years (79% vs. 68%; relative prevalence, 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11 to 1.20). The annual incidence of HIV infection in the intervention group decreased by 32% over 3 years (from 0.43 to 0.31 cases per 100 person-years; relative rate, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.56 to 0.84). However, the 3-year cumulative incidence (704 incident HIV infections) did not differ significantly between the intervention group and the control group (0.77% and 0.81%, respectively; relative risk, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.77 to 1.17). Among HIV-infected persons, the risk of death by year 3 was 3% in the intervention group and 4% in the control group (0.99 vs. 1.29 deaths per 100 person-years; relative risk, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.64 to 0.93). The risk of HIV-associated tuberculosis or death by year 3 among HIV-infected persons was 4% in the intervention group and 5% in the control group (1.19 vs. 1.50 events per 100 person-years; relative risk, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.94). At 3 years, 47% of adults with hypertension in the intervention group and 37% in the control group had hypertension control (relative prevalence, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.15 to 1.39). CONCLUSIONS: Universal HIV treatment did not result in a significantly lower incidence of HIV infection than standard care, probably owing to the availability of comprehensive baseline HIV testing and the rapid expansion of ART eligibility in the control group. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others; SEARCH ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01864603.).

A hybrid of long short-term memory neural network and autoregressive integrated moving average model in forecasting HIV incidence and morality of post-neonatal population in East Asia: global burden of diseases 2000-2019.

BACKGROUND: To forecast the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence and mortality of post-neonatal population in East Asia including North Korea, South Korea, Mongolia, Japan and China Mainland and Taiwan province. METHODS: The data on the incidence and mortality of HIV in post-neonatal population from East Asia were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD). The morbidity and mortality of post-neonatal HIV population from GBD 2000 to GBD 2013 were applied as the training set and the morbidity and mortality from GBD 2014 to GBD 2019 were used as the testing set. The hybrid of ARIMA and LSTM model was used to construct the model for assessing the morbidity and mortality in the countries and territories of East Asia, and predicting the morbidity and mortality in the next 5 years. RESULTS: In North Korea, the incidence and mortality of HIV showed a rapid increase during 2000-2010 and a gradual decrease during 2010-2019. The incidence of HIV was predicted to be increased and the mortality was decreased. In South Korea, the incidence was increased during 2000-2010 and decreased during 2010-2019, while the mortality showed fluctuant trend. As predicted, the incidence of HIV in South Korea might be increased and the mortality might be decreased during 2020-2025. In Mongolia, the incidence and mortality were slowly decreased during 2000-2005, increased during 2005-2015, and rapidly decreased till 2019. The predicted incidence and mortality of HIV showed a decreased trend. As for Japan, the incidence of HIV was rapidly increased till 2010 and then decreased till 2015. The predicted incidence of HIV in Japan was gradually increased. The mortality of HIV in Japan was fluctuant during 2000-2019 and was slowly decreased as predicted. The incidence and mortality of HIV in Taiwan during 2000-2019 was increased on the whole. The predicted incidence of HIV during was stationary and the mortality was decreased. In terms of China Mainland, the incidence and mortality of HIV was fluctuant during 2000-2019. The predicted incidence of HIV in China Mainland was stationary while the mortality was rapidly decreased. CONCLUSION: On the whole, the incidence of HIV combined with other diseases in post-neonatal population was increased before 2010 and then decreased during 2010-2019 while the mortality of those patients was decreased in East Asia.

Mortality Among Persons Entering HIV Care Compared With the General U.S. Population : An Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Understanding advances in the care and treatment of adults with HIV as well as remaining gaps requires comparing differences in mortality between persons entering care for HIV and the general population. OBJECTIVE: To assess the extent to which mortality among persons entering HIV care in the United States is elevated over mortality among matched persons in the general U.S. population and trends in this difference over time. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. SETTING: Thirteen sites from the U.S. North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design. PARTICIPANTS: 82 766 adults entering HIV clinical care between 1999 and 2017 and a subset of the U.S. population matched on calendar time, age, sex, race/ethnicity, and county using U.S. mortality and population data compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics. MEASUREMENTS: Five-year all-cause mortality, estimated using the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survival function. RESULTS: Overall 5-year mortality among persons entering HIV care was 10.6%, and mortality among the matched U.S. population was 2.9%, for a difference of 7.7 (95% CI, 7.4 to 7.9) percentage points. This difference decreased over time, from 11.1 percentage points among those entering care between 1999 and 2004 to 2.7 percentage points among those entering care between 2011 and 2017. LIMITATION: Matching on available covariates may have failed to account for differences in mortality that were due to sociodemographic factors rather than consequences of HIV infection and other modifiable factors. CONCLUSION: Mortality among persons entering HIV care decreased dramatically between 1999 and 2017, although those entering care remained at modestly higher risk for death in the years after starting care than comparable persons in the general U.S. population. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institutes of Health.

Cystatin C and Urine Albumin to Creatinine Ratio Predict 5-Year Mortality and Cardiovascular Events in People Living With HIV.

BACKGROUND: Identifying people with HIV (PWH) at risk for chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular events, and death is crucial. We evaluated biomarkers to predict all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events, and measured glomerular filtration rate (mGFR) slope. METHODS: Biomarkers were measured at enrollment. Baseline and 5-year mGFR were measured by plasma iohexol clearance. Outcomes were a composite criterion of all-cause mortality and/or cardiovascular events, and mGFR slope. RESULTS: Of 168 subjects, 146 (87.4%) had undetectable HIV load. Median follow-up was 59.1 months (interquartile range, 56.2-62.1). At baseline, mean age was 49.5 years (± 9.8) and mean mGFR 98.9 mL/min/1.73m2 (± 20.6). Seventeen deaths and 10 cardiovascular events occurred during 5-year follow-up. Baseline mGFR was not associated with mortality/cardiovascular events. In multivariable analysis, cystatin C (hazard ratio [HR], 5.978; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.774-12.88; P < .0001) and urine albumin to creatinine ratio (uACR) at inclusion (HR, 1.002; 95% CI, 1.001-1.004; P < .001) were associated with mortality/cardiovascular events. Area under receiver operating curve of cystatin C was 0.67 (95% CI, .55-.79) for mortality/cardiovascular event prediction. Biomarkers were not associated with GFR slope. CONCLUSIONS: uACR and cystatin C predict all-cause mortality and/or cardiovascular events in PWH independently of mGFR.