Clinical Sequencing Uncovers Origins and Evolution of Lassa Virus.

The 2013-2015 West African epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) reminds us of how little is known about biosafety level 4 viruses. Like Ebola virus, Lassa virus (LASV) can cause hemorrhagic fever with high case fatality rates. We generated a genomic catalog of almost 200 LASV sequences from clinical and rodent reservoir samples. We show that whereas the 2013-2015 EVD epidemic is fueled by human-to-human transmissions, LASV infections mainly result from reservoir-to-human infections. We elucidated the spread of LASV across West Africa and show that this migration was accompanied by changes in LASV genome abundance, fatality rates, codon adaptation, and translational efficiency. By investigating intrahost evolution, we found that mutations accumulate in epitopes of viral surface proteins, suggesting selection for immune escape. This catalog will serve as a foundation for the development of vaccines and diagnostics. VIDEO ABSTRACT.

Are self-reported fertility preferences biased? Evidence from indirect elicitation methods.

Desired fertility measures are routinely collected and used by researchers and policy makers, but their self-reported nature raises the possibility of reporting bias. In this paper, we test for the presence of such bias by comparing responses to direct survey questions with indirect questions offering a varying, randomized, degree of confidentiality to respondents in a socioeconomically diverse sample of Nigerian women ([Formula: see text]). We find that women report higher fertility preferences when asked indirectly, but only when their responses afford them complete confidentiality, not when their responses are simply blind to the enumerator. Our results suggest that there may be fewer unintended pregnancies than currently thought and that the effectiveness of family planning policy targeting may be weakened by the bias we uncover. We conclude with suggestions for future work on how to mitigate reporting bias.

The genetic dissection of fetal haemoglobin persistence in sickle cell disease in Nigeria.

The clinical severity of sickle cell disease (SCD) is strongly influenced by the level of fetal haemoglobin (HbF) persistent in each patient. Three major HbF loci (BCL11A, HBS1L-MYB, and Xmn1-HBG2) have been reported, but a considerable hidden heritability remains. We conducted a genome-wide association study for HbF levels in 1006 Nigerian patients with SCD (HbSS/HbSß0), followed by a replication and meta-analysis exercise in four independent SCD cohorts (3,582 patients). To dissect association signals at the major loci, we performed stepwise conditional and haplotype association analyses and included public functional annotation datasets. Association signals were detected for BCL11A (lead SNP rs6706648, ß = -0.39, P = 4.96 × 10-34) and HBS1L-MYB (lead SNP rs61028892, ß = 0.73, P = 1.18 × 10-9), whereas the variant allele for Xmn1-HBG2 was found to be very rare. In addition, we detected three putative new trait-associated regions. Genetically, dissecting the two major loci BCL11A and HBS1L-MYB, we defined trait-increasing haplotypes (P < 0.0001) containing so far unidentified causal variants. At BCL11A, in addition to a haplotype harbouring the putative functional variant rs1427407-'T', we identified a second haplotype, tagged by the rs7565301-'A' allele, where a yet-to-be-discovered causal DNA variant may reside. Similarly, at HBS1L-MYB, one HbF-increasing haplotype contains the likely functional small indel rs66650371, and a second tagged by rs61028892-'C' is likely to harbour a presently unknown functional allele. Together, variants at BCL11A and HBS1L-MYB SNPs explained 24.1% of the trait variance. Our findings provide a path for further investigation of the causes of variable fetal haemoglobin persistence in sickle cell disease.

How contact can promote societal change amid conflict: An intergroup contact field experiment in Nigeria.

Intergroup contact, originally designed as a tool for prejudice reduction, offers a promising means to resolve intergroup conflict. Evidence for contact-based interventions to improve intergroup relations is sparse, however, with most studies focusing only on the individuals who directly engage in contact. We test the ability of a contact-based intervention to promote peace between conflicting groups with a field experiment in Nigeria, where farmer and pastoralist communities are embroiled in a deadly conflict over land use. We examine the effectiveness of the contact intervention on the wider population-not just those directly engaged in contact-using surveys, direct observation of behavior in markets and social events, and a behavioral game. We find those who lived in the communities that received the intervention had more positive intergroup attitudes and feelings of physical security, as well as were more likely to engage in voluntary intergroup contact measured through self-reports and observed behavior in markets. Exploratory analyses show that those who directly participated in the program and those who were exposed to it by living in the communities where activities were taking place changed similarly with regard to attitudes and perceptions of security, but not with regard to behaviors, indicating the spread to the wider community was likely due to norm change. These results suggest that contact interventions can have wider societal change and reduce the barriers to peace between conflicting groups.

Mortality among populations affected by armed conflict in northeast Nigeria, 2016 to 2019.

Armed conflict, displacement and food insecurity have affected Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe states of northeast Nigeria (population ≈ 12 million) since 2009. Insecurity escalated in 2013 to 2015, but the humanitarian response was delayed and the crisis' health impact was unquantified due to incomplete death registration and limited ground access. We estimated mortality attributable to this crisis using a small-area estimation approach that circumvented these challenges. We fitted a mixed effects model to household mortality data collected as part of 70 ground surveys implemented by humanitarian actors. Model predictors, drawn from existing data, included livelihood typology, staple cereal price, vaccination geocoverage, and humanitarian actor presence. To project accurate death tolls, we reconstructed population denominators based on forced displacement. We used the model and population estimates to project mortality under observed conditions and varying assumed counterfactual conditions, had there been no crisis, with the difference providing excess mortality. Death rates were highly elevated across most ground surveys, with net negative household migration. Between April 2016 and December 2019, we projected 490,000 excess deaths (230,000 children under 5 y) in the most likely counterfactual scenario, with a range from 90,000 (best-case) to 550,000 (worst-case). Death rates were two to three times higher than counterfactual levels, double the projected national rate, and highest in 2016 to 2017. Despite limited scope (we could not study the situation before 2016 or in neighboring affected countries), our findings suggest a staggering health impact of this crisis. Further studies to document mortality in this and other crises are needed to guide decision-making and memorialize their human toll.

Hydroxyurea for secondary stroke prevention in children with sickle cell anemia in Nigeria: a randomized controlled trial.

We tested the hypothesis that fixed oral moderate-dose hydroxyurea (20 mg/kg per day) for initial treatment of secondary stroke prevention results in an 80% relative risk reduction of stroke or death when compared with fixed oral low-dose hydroxyurea (10 mg/kg per day) in a phase 3 double-blind, parallel-group, randomized controlled trial in children with sickle cell anemia (SCA) living in Nigeria. A total of 101 participants were randomly allocated to low-dose (n = 49) and moderate-dose (n = 52) hydroxyurea treatment groups. The median participant follow-up was 1.6 years (interquartile range, 1.0-2.3), with a planned minimum follow-up of 3.0 years. A total of 6 recurrent strokes and 2 deaths vs 5 recurrent strokes and 3 deaths occurred in the low- and moderate-dose groups, respectively. The incidence rate ratio (IRR) of the primary outcome measure of stroke or death in the low- and moderate-dose hydroxyurea treatment groups was 0.98 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.32-3.00; P = .97). The trial was stopped early owing to no clinical difference in the incidence rates of the primary outcome measure. The incidence rates of recurrent strokes were 7.1 and 6.0 per 100 person-years in the low- and moderate-dose groups, respectively, (IRR, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.30-4.88; P = .74). As a measure of adherence to the oral hydroxyurea therapy, the median percent of returned pills was 3.0% and 2.6% in the low- and moderate-dose groups, respectively. No participant had hydroxyurea therapy stopped for myelosuppression. For children with SCA in low-income settings without access to regular blood transfusion therapy, initial low-dose hydroxyurea is a minimum known efficacious dose for secondary stroke prevention.

Geographic microtargeting of social assistance with high-resolution poverty maps.

Hundreds of millions of poor families receive some form of targeted social assistance. Many of these antipoverty programs involve some degree of geographic targeting, where aid is prioritized to the poorest regions of the country. However, policy makers in many low-resource settings lack the disaggregated poverty data required to make effective geographic targeting decisions. Using several independent datasets from Nigeria, this paper shows that high-resolution poverty maps, constructed by applying machine learning algorithms to satellite imagery and other nontraditional geospatial data, can improve the targeting of government cash transfers to poor families. Specifically, we find that geographic targeting relying on machine learning-based poverty maps can reduce errors of exclusion and inclusion relative to geographic targeting based on recent nationally representative survey data. This result holds for antipoverty programs that target both the poor and the extreme poor and for initiatives of varying sizes. We also find no evidence that machine learning-based maps increase targeting disparities by demographic groups, such as gender or religion. Based in part on these findings, the Government of Nigeria used this approach to geographically target emergency cash transfers in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

A locus at 19q13.31 significantly reduces the ApoE ε4 risk for Alzheimer's Disease in African Ancestry.

African descent populations have a lower Alzheimer disease risk from ApoE ε4 compared to other populations. Ancestry analysis showed that the difference in risk between African and European populations lies in the ancestral genomic background surrounding the ApoE locus (local ancestry). Identifying the mechanism(s) of this protection could lead to greater insight into the etiology of Alzheimer disease and more personalized therapeutic intervention. Our objective is to follow up the local ancestry finding and identify the genetic variants that drive this risk difference and result in a lower risk for developing Alzheimer disease in African ancestry populations. We performed association analyses using a logistic regression model with the ApoE ε4 allele as an interaction term and adjusted for genome-wide ancestry, age, and sex. Discovery analysis included imputed SNP data of 1,850 Alzheimer disease and 4,331 cognitively intact African American individuals. We performed replication analyses on 63 whole genome sequenced Alzheimer disease and 648 cognitively intact Ibadan individuals. Additionally, we reproduced results using whole-genome sequencing of 273 Alzheimer disease and 275 cognitively intact admixed Puerto Rican individuals. A further comparison was done with SNP imputation from an additional 8,463 Alzheimer disease and 11,365 cognitively intact non-Hispanic White individuals. We identified a significant interaction between the ApoE ε4 allele and the SNP rs10423769_A allele, (ß = -0.54,SE = 0.12,p-value = 7.50x10-6) in the discovery data set, and replicated this finding in Ibadan (ß = -1.32,SE = 0.52,p-value = 1.15x10-2) and Puerto Rican (ß = -1.27,SE = 0.64,p-value = 4.91x10-2) individuals. The non-Hispanic Whites analyses showed an interaction trending in the "protective" direction but failing to pass a 0.05 significance threshold (ß = -1.51,SE = 0.84,p-value = 7.26x10-2). The presence of the rs10423769_A allele reduces the odds ratio for Alzheimer disease risk from 7.2 for ApoE ε4/ε4 carriers lacking the A allele to 2.1 for ApoE ε4/ε4 carriers with at least one A allele. This locus is located approximately 2 mB upstream of the ApoE locus, in a large cluster of pregnancy specific beta-1 glycoproteins on chromosome 19 and lies within a long noncoding RNA, ENSG00000282943. This study identified a new African-ancestry specific locus that reduces the risk effect of ApoE ε4 for developing Alzheimer disease. The mechanism of the interaction with ApoEε4 is not known but suggests a novel mechanism for reducing the risk for ε4 carriers opening the possibility for potential ancestry-specific therapeutic intervention.

Mpox and Chickenpox Coinfection: Case Series From Southern Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: We describe clinicoepidemiologic characteristics of mpox-chickenpox coinfection in Nigeria. METHODS: A retrospective cohort analysis was performed of confirmed mpox cases in Nigeria from January 2022 to March 2023. Mpox and chickenpox were confirmed by real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). RESULTS: Of 94 (60.0%) suspected cases, 56 had confirmed mpox, of whom 16 (28.6%) had chickenpox coinfection. The median age of confirmed mpox cases was 29 years (interquartile range, 20-37 years), 24 were men (60.7%), 6 (10.7%) were bisexual, and 5 (8.9%) died. Mpox-chickenpox-coinfected patients had more complications than mpox-monoinfected cases (56.3% vs 22.5%, P = .015). CONCLUSIONS: The high frequency of mpox-chickenpox coinfection argues for accelerated access to mpox and chickenpox vaccines in Africa.

Impact of Supplementary Immunization Activities using Novel Oral Polio Vaccine Type 2 during a Large outbreak of Circulating Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Novel oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) type 2 (nOPV2) has been made available for outbreak response under an emergency use listing authorization based on supportive clinical trial data. Since 2021 more than 350 million doses of nOPV2 were used for control of a large outbreak of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) in Nigeria. METHODS: Using a bayesian time-series susceptible-infectious-recovered model, we evaluate the field effectiveness of nOPV2 immunization campaigns in Nigeria compared with campaigns using monovalent OPV type 2 (mOPV2). RESULTS: We found that both nOPV2 and mOPV2 campaigns were highly effective in reducing transmission of cVDPV2, on average reducing the susceptible population by 42% (95% confidence interval, 28-54%) and 38% (20-51%) per campaign, respectively, which were indistinguishable from each other in this analysis (relative effect, 1.1 [.7-1.9]). Impact was found to vary across areas and between immunization campaigns. CONCLUSIONS: These results are consistent with the comparable individual immunogenicity of nOPV2 and mOPV2 found in clinical trials but also suggest that outbreak response campaigns may have small impacts in some areas requiring more campaigns than are suggested in current outbreak response procedures.

High-Resolution Geospatial Mapping of Zero-Dose and Underimmunized Children Following Nigeria's 2021 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey/National Immunization Coverage Survey.

BACKGROUND: "Zero-dose" children are those who are without any routine vaccination or are lacking the first dose of the diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis-containing vaccine. Based on global estimates from the World Health Organization/United Nations Children's Fund in 2022, Nigeria has the highest number of zero-dose children, with >2.3 million unvaccinated. METHODS: We used data from the 2021 Nigeria Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey/National Immunization Coverage Survey to identify zero-dose and underimmunized children. Geospatial modeling techniques were employed to determine the prevalence of zero-dose children and predict risk areas with underimmunized children at a high resolution (1 × 1 km). RESULTS: Zero-dose and underimmunized children are more prevalent in socially deprived groups. Univariate and multivariate bayesian analyses showed positive correlations between the prevalence of zero-dose and underimmunized children and factors such as stunting, contraceptive prevalence, and literacy. The prevalence of zero-dose and underimmunized children varies significantly by region and ethnicity, with higher rates observed in the country's northern parts. Significant heterogeneity in the distribution of undervaccinated children was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Nigeria needs to enhance its immunization system and coverage. Geospatial modeling can help deliver vaccines effectively to underserved communities. By adopting this approach, countries can ensure equitable vaccine access and contribute to global vaccination objectives.

Generalizability of machine learning in predicting antimicrobial resistance in E. coli: a multi-country case study in Africa.

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) remains a significant global health threat particularly impacting low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). These regions often grapple with limited healthcare resources and access to advanced diagnostic tools. Consequently, there is a pressing need for innovative approaches that can enhance AMR surveillance and management. Machine learning (ML) though underutilized in these settings, presents a promising avenue. This study leverages ML models trained on whole-genome sequencing data from England, where such data is more readily available, to predict AMR in E. coli, targeting key antibiotics such as ciprofloxacin, ampicillin, and cefotaxime. A crucial part of our work involved the validation of these models using an independent dataset from Africa, specifically from Uganda, Nigeria, and Tanzania, to ascertain their applicability and effectiveness in LMICs. RESULTS: Model performance varied across antibiotics. The Support Vector Machine excelled in predicting ciprofloxacin resistance (87% accuracy, F1 Score: 0.57), Light Gradient Boosting Machine for cefotaxime (92% accuracy, F1 Score: 0.42), and Gradient Boosting for ampicillin (58% accuracy, F1 Score: 0.66). In validation with data from Africa, Logistic Regression showed high accuracy for ampicillin (94%, F1 Score: 0.97), while Random Forest and Light Gradient Boosting Machine were effective for ciprofloxacin (50% accuracy, F1 Score: 0.56) and cefotaxime (45% accuracy, F1 Score:0.54), respectively. Key mutations associated with AMR were identified for these antibiotics. CONCLUSION: As the threat of AMR continues to rise, the successful application of these models, particularly on genomic datasets from LMICs, signals a promising avenue for improving AMR prediction to support large AMR surveillance programs. This work thus not only expands our current understanding of the genetic underpinnings of AMR but also provides a robust methodological framework that can guide future research and applications in the fight against AMR.

Case-area targeted interventions during a large-scale cholera epidemic: A prospective cohort study in Northeast Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Cholera outbreaks are on the rise globally, with conflict-affected settings particularly at risk. Case-area targeted interventions (CATIs), a strategy whereby teams provide a package of interventions to case and neighboring households within a predefined "ring," are increasingly employed in cholera responses. However, evidence on their ability to attenuate incidence is limited. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a prospective observational cohort study in 3 conflict-affected states in Nigeria in 2021. Enumerators within rapid response teams observed CATI implementation during a cholera outbreak and collected data on household demographics; existing water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure; and CATI interventions. Descriptive statistics showed that CATIs were delivered to 46,864 case and neighbor households, with 80.0% of cases and 33.5% of neighbors receiving all intended supplies and activities, in a context with operational challenges of population density, supply stock outs, and security constraints. We then applied prospective Poisson space-time scan statistics (STSS) across 3 models for each state: (1) an unadjusted model with case and population data; (2) an environmentally adjusted model adjusting for distance to cholera treatment centers and existing WASH infrastructure (improved water source, improved latrine, and handwashing station); and (3) a fully adjusted model adjusting for environmental and CATI variables (supply of Aquatabs and soap, hygiene promotion, bedding and latrine disinfection activities, ring coverage, and response timeliness). We ran the STSS each day of our study period to evaluate the space-time dynamics of the cholera outbreaks. Compared to the unadjusted model, significant cholera clustering was attenuated in the environmentally adjusted model (from 572 to 18 clusters) but there was still risk of cholera transmission. Two states still yielded significant clusters (range 8-10 total clusters, relative risk of 2.2-5.5, 16.6-19.9 day duration, including 11.1-56.8 cholera cases). Cholera clustering was completely attenuated in the fully adjusted model, with no significant anomalous clusters across time and space. Associated measures including quantity, relative risk, significance, likelihood of recurrence, size, and duration of clusters reinforced the results. Key limitations include selection bias, remote data monitoring, and the lack of a control group. CONCLUSIONS: CATIs were associated with significant reductions in cholera clustering in Northeast Nigeria despite operational challenges. Our results provide a strong justification for rapid implementation and scale-up CATIs in cholera-response, particularly in conflict settings where WASH access is often limited.

Setting up a state-of-the-art laboratory in resource limited settings: A case study of the biomedical science research and training centre in Northeast Nigeria.

African science has substantial potential, yet it grapples with significant challenges. Here we describe the establishment of the Biomedical Science Research and Training Centre (BioRTC) in Yobe State, Northeast Nigeria, as a case study of a hub fostering on-continent research and describe strategies to overcome current barriers. We detail the steps taken to establish BioRTC, emphasising the critical importance of stakeholder engagement, community involvement, resource optimisation and collaborations. With its state-of-the-art facilities and commitment to training African scientists, BioRTC is poised to significantly advance neuroscience research and training in the region. Although we are in the early stages of our journey, our model, emphasizing open access and inclusivity, offers a replicable blueprint for neuroscience research development in similar resource-limited settings, promising to enrich the global neuroscience community. We invite the support and collaboration of those who share our vision and believe in our potential.

The role of immune-inflammatory markers in children with complicated and uncomplicated malaria in Enugu, Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: There is currently insufficient data regarding immune parameters and relationship with severity of malaria infection in Enugu, Nigeria where the economic and social costs of the disease and its management are extremely high. This study was conducted to determine the relationship between malaria severity and some immune-inflammatory markers among malaria-infected children in Enugu, Nigeria. METHODS: The study adopted a case control design. Eligible children were categorized into three groups - complicated, uncomplicated and healthy children. Pro-inflammatory cytokines -interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α); and anti-inflammatory cytokine - interleukin-10 (IL-10) were assayed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) technique, while immune cell ratios - neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and monocyte lymphocyte ratio (MLR) were calculated from full blood count results. RESULTS: The overall mean age of the participants was 7.3 ± 3.4 (range: 6 months - 12 years) and the male-female ratio was 1:1. There was no significant difference between the ages of the three groups (P = 0.44). The Mean levels of IFN-γ, TNF-α, and NLR were higher in complicated than uncomplicated malaria (266.9 ± 66.3pg/ml vs. 62.5 ± 6.4pg/ml, p < 0.001; 140.3 ± 30.0pg/ml vs. 42.0 ± 9.0pg/ml, p < 0.001; and 32.9 ± 16.2pg/ml vs. 17.8 ± 6.0pg/ml, p < 0.001, respectively); and higher in uncomplicated malaria than healthy children (62.5 ± 6.4pg/ml vs. 40.6 ± 9.1pg/ml, p < 0.001; 42.0 ± 9.0pg/ml vs. 105.7 ± 32.1, p < 0.001; 17.8 ± 6.0pg/ml vs. 18.7 ± 6.2pg/ml, p < 0.001, respectively). On the other hand, the mean level of IL-10 is higher in uncomplicated than complicated malaria (105.73 ± 32.06pg/ml vs. 40.60 ± 9.11pg/ml, p < 0.001). There was a positive correlation between NLR and IFN-γ (r = 0.815; p = 0.003), as well as NLR and TNF-α (r = 0.745; p = 0.002). CONCLUSION: Complicated malaria is associated with higher levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines while uncomplicated malaria is associated with higher levels of anti-inflammatory cytokines. NLR correlates positively with pro-inflammatory cytokines, and could be useful in evaluation for the severity of malaria infection.

So many Nigerians: why is Nigeria overrepresented as the ancestral genetic homeland of Legacy African North Americans?

The genetics of African North Americans are complex amalgamations of various West and Central African peoples with modest gene flow from specific European and Amerindian peoples. A comprehensive understanding of African North American biohistory is a prerequisite for accurate interpretations of the ancestral genetics of this population. Too often, genetic interpretations falter with ahistorical reconstructions. The recently reported overrepresentation of Nigerian lineages in African North Americans reflects pronounced limitations in the African genomic database, the artificiality of the colonial maps of Africa, the contributions of multiple African empires and kingdoms into the transatlantic trade in enslaved Africans, and the overrepresentation of Yoruba peoples in the existing limited representation of West Africans in public genomic databases. This Matters Arising paper is in response to Micheletti et al. (2020), published in The American Journal of Human Genetics. See also the response by Micheletti et al. (2020), published in this issue.

Mapping heterogeneity in family planning indicators in Burkina Faso, Kenya, and Nigeria, 2000-2020.

BACKGROUND: Family planning is fundamental to women's reproductive health and is a basic human right. Global targets such as Sustainable Development Goal 3 (specifically, Target 3.7) have been established to promote universal access to sexual and reproductive healthcare services. Country-level estimates of contraceptive use and other family planning indicators are already available and are used for tracking progress towards these goals. However, there is likely heterogeneity in these indicators within countries, and more local estimates can provide crucial additional information about progress towards these goals in specific populations. In this analysis, we develop estimates of six family indicators at a local scale, and use these estimates to describe heterogeneity and spatial-temporal patterns in these indicators in Burkina Faso, Kenya, and Nigeria. METHODS: We used a Bayesian geostatistical modelling framework to analyse geo-located data on contraceptive use and family planning from 61 household surveys in Burkina Faso, Kenya, and Nigeria in order to generate subnational estimates of prevalence and associated uncertainty for six indicators from 2000 to 2020: contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR), modern contraceptive prevalence rate (mCPR), traditional contraceptive prevalence rate (tCPR), unmet need for modern methods of contraception, met need for family planning with modern methods, and intention to use contraception. For each country and indicator, we generated estimates at an approximately 5 × 5-km resolution and at the first and second administrative levels (regions and provinces in Burkina Faso; counties and sub-counties in Kenya; and states and local government areas in Nigeria). RESULTS: We found substantial variation among locations in Burkina Faso, Kenya, and Nigeria for each of the family planning indicators estimated. For example, estimated CPR in 2020 ranged from 13.2% (95% Uncertainty Interval, 8.0-20.0%) in Oudalan to 38.9% (30.1-48.6%) in Kadiogo among provinces in Burkina Faso; from 0.4% (0.0-1.9%) in Banissa to 76.3% (58.1-89.6%) in Makueni among sub-counties in Kenya; and from 0.9% (0.3-2.0%) in Yunusari to 31.8% (19.9-46.9%) in Somolu among local government areas in Nigeria. There were also considerable differences among locations in each country in the magnitude of change over time for any given indicator; however, in most cases, there was more consistency in the direction of that change: for example, CPR, mCPR, and met need for family planning with modern methods increased nationally in all three countries between 2000 and 2020, and similarly increased in all provinces of Burkina Faso, and in large majorities of sub-counties in Kenya and local government areas in Nigeria. CONCLUSIONS: Despite substantial increases in contraceptive use, too many women still have an unmet need for modern methods of contraception. Moreover, country-level estimates of family planning indicators obscure important differences among locations within the same country. The modelling approach described here enables estimating family planning indicators at a subnational level and could be readily adapted to estimate subnational trends in family planning indicators in other countries. These estimates provide a tool for better understanding local needs and informing continued efforts to ensure universal access to sexual and reproductive healthcare services.

Utilization of opportunistic cervical cancer screening in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: While various interventions have been conducted to decrease cervical cancer's burden in Nigeria, no study has examined the trends in cervical cancer screening uptake over time. The present study sought to fill this gap in knowledge using data collected at Jos University Teaching Hospital (JUTH) in Nigeria. METHODS: Data collected continuously between 2006 and 2016 were analyzed to identify trends in screening uptake, changes in risk factors for cervical cancer, and to identify factors for women screened at Jos University Teaching Hospital (JUTH) in Jos, Nigeria. Categorical analyses and logistic regression models were used to describe patient characteristics by year, and to identify factors associated with repeated screening uptake. RESULTS: A total of 14,088 women who were screened between 2006 and 2016 were included in the database; 2,800 women had more than one screening visit. Overall, screening uptake differed significantly by year. On average women were first screened at age 38. About 2% of women screened were women living with HIV. Most women (86%) had normal pap smear at first screening, with the greatest decreased risk of abnormalities observed between 2011 and 2014. Odds of a follow-up screening after a normal result decreased significantly between 2008 and 2016 compared to women screened in 2006 and 2007. Finally, women living with HIV had increased odds of follow-up screening after having a normal pap smear. CONCLUSIONS: These findings contribute to our understanding of the potential social and health system barriers to cervical cancer control in Nigeria. The findings may assist policy makers to design interventions to increase access and compliance to recommended screening schedules in this vulnerable population.

Benign breast disease and breast cancer risk in African women: a case-control study.

PURPOSE: To examine the association between benign breast disease (BBD) and breast cancer (BC) in a heterogeneous population of African women. METHODS: BC cases and controls were enrolled in three sub-Saharan African countries, Nigeria, Cameroon, and Uganda, between 1998 and 2018. Multivariable logistic regression was used to test the association between BBD and BC. Risk factors dually associated with BBD and BC were selected. Using a parametric mediation analysis model, we assessed if selected BC risk factors were mediated by BBD. RESULTS: Of 6,274 participants, 55.6% (3,478) were breast cancer cases. 360 (5.7%) self-reported BBD. Fibroadenoma (46.8%) was the most commonly reported BBD. Women with a self-reported history of BBD had greater odds of developing BC than those without (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.47, 95% CI 1.13-1.91). Biopsy-confirmed BBD was associated with BC (aOR 2.25, 95% CI 1.26-4.02). BBD did not significantly mediate the effects of any of the selected BC risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, BBD was associated with BC and did not significantly mediate the effects of selected BC risk factors.