Mortality in relation to profiles of clinical features in Ghanaian severely undernourished children aged 0-59 months: an observational study.

Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) is associated with a complex pattern of various clinical conditions. We investigated how risk factors cluster in children with SAM, the relationship between clusters of risk factors and mortality as well as length of stay in children with SAM. A prospective observational study design was used. Data were extracted from medical records of 601 infants and children aged 0-59 months admitted and treated for SAM in three Ghanaian referral hospital between June 2013 and June 2018. Among the 601 medical records extracted, ninety-nine died. Three clusters of medical features clearly emerged from data analyses. Firstly, an association was defined by eye signs, pallor, diarrhoea and vomiting with gastrointestinal infections and malaria. In this cluster, pallor and eye signs were related to 2- to 5-fold increased mortality risk. Secondly, HIV, oedema, fast pulse, respiratory infections and tuberculosis; among those features, HIV increased child mortality risk by 2-fold. Thirdly, shock, convulsions, dermatitis, cold hands and feet, weak pulse, urinary tract infections and irritability were clustered. Among those features, cold hands and feet, dermatitis, convulsions and shock increased child mortality risk in a range of 2- to 9-fold. Medical conditions and clinical signs in children diagnosed with SAM associate in patterns and are related to clinical outcomes.

Biannual azithromycin distribution and child mortality among malnourished children: A subgroup analysis of the MORDOR cluster-randomized trial in Niger.

BACKGROUND: Biannual azithromycin distribution has been shown to reduce child mortality as well as increase antimicrobial resistance. Targeting distributions to vulnerable subgroups such as malnourished children is one approach to reaching those at the highest risk of mortality while limiting selection for resistance. The objective of this analysis was to assess whether the effect of azithromycin on mortality differs by nutritional status. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A large simple trial randomized communities in Niger to receive biannual distributions of azithromycin or placebo to children 1-59 months old over a 2-year timeframe. In exploratory subgroup analyses, the effect of azithromycin distribution on child mortality was assessed for underweight subgroups using weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ) thresholds of -2 and -3. Modification of the effect of azithromycin on mortality by underweight status was examined on the additive and multiplicative scale. Between December 2014 and August 2017, 27,222 children 1-11 months of age from 593 communities had weight measured at their first study visit. Overall, the average age among included children was 4.7 months (interquartile range [IQR] 3-6), 49.5% were female, 23% had a WAZ < -2, and 10% had a WAZ < -3. This analysis included 523 deaths in communities assigned to azithromycin and 661 deaths in communities assigned to placebo. The mortality rate was lower in communities assigned to azithromycin than placebo overall, with larger reductions among children with lower WAZ: -12.6 deaths per 1,000 person-years (95% CI -18.5 to -6.9, P < 0.001) overall, -17.0 (95% CI -28.0 to -7.0, P = 0.001) among children with WAZ < -2, and -25.6 (95% CI -42.6 to -9.6, P = 0.003) among children with WAZ < -3. No statistically significant evidence of effect modification was demonstrated by WAZ subgroup on either the additive or multiplicative scale (WAZ < -2, additive: 95% CI -6.4 to 16.8, P = 0.34; WAZ < -2, multiplicative: 95% CI 0.8 to 1.4, P = 0.50, WAZ < -3, additive: 95% CI -2.2 to 31.1, P = 0.14; WAZ < -3, multiplicative: 95% CI 0.9 to 1.7, P = 0.26). The estimated number of deaths averted with azithromycin was 388 (95% CI 214 to 574) overall, 116 (95% CI 48 to 192) among children with WAZ < -2, and 76 (95% CI 27 to 127) among children with WAZ < -3. Limitations include the availability of a single weight measurement on only the youngest children and the lack of power to detect small effect sizes with this rare outcome. Despite the trial's large size, formal tests for effect modification did not reach statistical significance at the 95% confidence level. CONCLUSIONS: Although mortality rates were higher in the underweight subgroups, this study was unable to demonstrate that nutritional status modified the effect of biannual azithromycin distribution on mortality. Even if the effect were greater among underweight children, a nontargeted intervention would result in the greatest absolute number of deaths averted. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The MORDOR trial is registered at clinicaltrials.gov NCT02047981.

Housing and child health in sub-Saharan Africa: A cross-sectional analysis.

BACKGROUND: Housing is essential to human well-being but neglected in global health. Today, housing in Africa is rapidly improving alongside economic development, creating an urgent need to understand how these changes can benefit health. We hypothesised that improved housing is associated with better health in children living in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of housing conditions relative to a range of child health outcomes in SSA. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Cross-sectional data were analysed for 824,694 children surveyed in 54 Demographic and Health Surveys, 21 Malaria Indicator Surveys, and two AIDS Indicator Surveys conducted in 33 countries between 2001 and 2017 that measured malaria infection by microscopy or rapid diagnostic test (RDT), diarrhoea, acute respiratory infections (ARIs), stunting, wasting, underweight, or anaemia in children aged 0-5 years. The mean age of children was 2.5 years, and 49.7% were female. Housing was categorised into a binary variable based on a United Nations definition comparing improved housing (with improved drinking water, improved sanitation, sufficient living area, and finished building materials) versus unimproved housing (all other houses). Associations between house type and child health outcomes were determined using conditional logistic regression within surveys, adjusting for prespecified covariables including age, sex, household wealth, insecticide-treated bed net use, and vaccination status. Individual survey odds ratios (ORs) were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Across surveys, improved housing was associated with 8%-18% lower odds of all outcomes except ARI (malaria infection by microscopy: adjusted OR [aOR] 0.88, 95% confidence intervals [CIs] 0.80-0.97, p = 0.01; malaria infection by RDT: aOR 0.82, 95% CI 0.77-0.88, p < 0.001; diarrhoea: aOR 0.92, 95% CI 0.88-0.97, p = 0.001; ARI: aOR 0.96, 95% CI 0.87-1.07, p = 0.49; stunting: aOR 0.83, 95% CI 0.77-0.88, p < 0.001; wasting: aOR 0.90, 95% CI 0.83-0.99, p = 0.03; underweight: aOR 0.85, 95% CI 0.80-0.90, p < 0.001; any anaemia: aOR 0.87, 95% CI 0.82-0.92, p < 0.001; severe anaemia: aOR 0.89, 95% CI 0.84-0.95, p < 0.001). In comparison, insecticide-treated net use was associated with 16%-17% lower odds of malaria infection (microscopy: aOR 0.83, 95% CI 0.78-0.88, p < 0.001; RDT: aOR 0.84, 95% CI 0.79-0.88, p < 0.001). Drinking water source and sanitation facility alone were not associated with diarrhoea. The main study limitations are the use of self-reported diarrhoea and ARI, as well as potential residual confounding by socioeconomic position, despite adjustments for household wealth and education. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that poor housing, which includes inadequate drinking water and sanitation facility, is associated with health outcomes known to increase child mortality in SSA. Improvements to housing may be protective against a number of important childhood infectious diseases as well as poor growth outcomes, with major potential to improve children's health and survival across SSA.

The influence of nutrition on clinical outcomes in children with cancer.

Adequate and appropriate nutrition is essential for growth and development in children; all put at risk in those with cancer. Overnutrition and undernutrition at diagnosis raise the risk of increased morbidity and mortality during therapy and beyond. All treatment modalities can jeopardize nutritional status with potentially adverse effects on clinical outcomes. Accurate assessment of nutritional status and nutrient balance is essential, with remedial interventions delivered promptly when required. Children with cancer in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are especially disadvantaged with concomitant challenges in the provision of nutritional support. Cost-effective advances in the form of ready-to-use therapeutic foods (RUTF) may offer solutions. Studies in LMICs have defined a critical role for the gut microbiome in the causation of undernutrition in children and have demonstrated a beneficial effect of selected RUTF in redressing the imbalanced microbiota and improving nutritional status. Challenges in high-income countries relate both to concerns about the potential disadvantage of preexisting obesity in those newly diagnosed and to undernutrition identified at diagnosis and during treatment. Much remains to be understood but the prospects are bright for offsetting malnutrition in children with cancer, resulting in enhanced opportunity for healthy survival.

Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death: reference and alternative scenarios for 2016-40 for 195 countries and territories.

BACKGROUND: Understanding potential trajectories in health and drivers of health is crucial to guiding long-term investments and policy implementation. Past work on forecasting has provided an incomplete landscape of future health scenarios, highlighting a need for a more robust modelling platform from which policy options and potential health trajectories can be assessed. This study provides a novel approach to modelling life expectancy, all-cause mortality and cause of death forecasts -and alternative future scenarios-for 250 causes of death from 2016 to 2040 in 195 countries and territories. METHODS: We modelled 250 causes and cause groups organised by the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) hierarchical cause structure, using GBD 2016 estimates from 1990-2016, to generate predictions for 2017-40. Our modelling framework used data from the GBD 2016 study to systematically account for the relationships between risk factors and health outcomes for 79 independent drivers of health. We developed a three-component model of cause-specific mortality: a component due to changes in risk factors and select interventions; the underlying mortality rate for each cause that is a function of income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility rate under 25 years and time; and an autoregressive integrated moving average model for unexplained changes correlated with time. We assessed the performance by fitting models with data from 1990-2006 and using these to forecast for 2007-16. Our final model used for generating forecasts and alternative scenarios was fitted to data from 1990-2016. We used this model for 195 countries and territories to generate a reference scenario or forecast through 2040 for each measure by location. Additionally, we generated better health and worse health scenarios based on the 85th and 15th percentiles, respectively, of annualised rates of change across location-years for all the GBD risk factors, income per person, educational attainment, select intervention coverage, and total fertility rate under 25 years in the past. We used the model to generate all-cause age-sex specific mortality, life expectancy, and years of life lost (YLLs) for 250 causes. Scenarios for fertility were also generated and used in a cohort component model to generate population scenarios. For each reference forecast, better health, and worse health scenarios, we generated estimates of mortality and YLLs attributable to each risk factor in the future. FINDINGS: Globally, most independent drivers of health were forecast to improve by 2040, but 36 were forecast to worsen. As shown by the better health scenarios, greater progress might be possible, yet for some drivers such as high body-mass index (BMI), their toll will rise in the absence of intervention. We forecasted global life expectancy to increase by 4·4 years (95% UI 2·2 to 6·4) for men and 4·4 years (2·1 to 6·4) for women by 2040, but based on better and worse health scenarios, trajectories could range from a gain of 7·8 years (5·9 to 9·8) to a non-significant loss of 0·4 years (-2·8 to 2·2) for men, and an increase of 7·2 years (5·3 to 9·1) to essentially no change (0·1 years [-2·7 to 2·5]) for women. In 2040, Japan, Singapore, Spain, and Switzerland had a forecasted life expectancy exceeding 85 years for both sexes, and 59 countries including China were projected to surpass a life expectancy of 80 years by 2040. At the same time, Central African Republic, Lesotho, Somalia, and Zimbabwe had projected life expectancies below 65 years in 2040, indicating global disparities in survival are likely to persist if current trends hold. Forecasted YLLs showed a rising toll from several non-communicable diseases (NCDs), partly driven by population growth and ageing. Differences between the reference forecast and alternative scenarios were most striking for HIV/AIDS, for which a potential increase of 120·2% (95% UI 67·2-190·3) in YLLs (nearly 118 million) was projected globally from 2016-40 under the worse health scenario. Compared with 2016, NCDs were forecast to account for a greater proportion of YLLs in all GBD regions by 2040 (67·3% of YLLs [95% UI 61·9-72·3] globally); nonetheless, in many lower-income countries, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases still accounted for a large share of YLLs in 2040 (eg, 53·5% of YLLs [95% UI 48·3-58·5] in Sub-Saharan Africa). There were large gaps for many health risks between the reference forecast and better health scenario for attributable YLLs. In most countries, metabolic risks amenable to health care (eg, high blood pressure and high plasma fasting glucose) and risks best targeted by population-level or intersectoral interventions (eg, tobacco, high BMI, and ambient particulate matter pollution) had some of the largest differences between reference and better health scenarios. The main exception was sub-Saharan Africa, where many risks associated with poverty and lower levels of development (eg, unsafe water and sanitation, household air pollution, and child malnutrition) were projected to still account for substantive disparities between reference and better health scenarios in 2040. INTERPRETATION: With the present study, we provide a robust, flexible forecasting platform from which reference forecasts and alternative health scenarios can be explored in relation to a wide range of independent drivers of health. Our reference forecast points to overall improvements through 2040 in most countries, yet the range found across better and worse health scenarios renders a precarious vision of the future-a world with accelerating progress from technical innovation but with the potential for worsening health outcomes in the absence of deliberate policy action. For some causes of YLLs, large differences between the reference forecast and alternative scenarios reflect the opportunity to accelerate gains if countries move their trajectories toward better health scenarios-or alarming challenges if countries fall behind their reference forecasts. Generally, decision makers should plan for the likely continued shift toward NCDs and target resources toward the modifiable risks that drive substantial premature mortality. If such modifiable risks are prioritised today, there is opportunity to reduce avoidable mortality in the future. However, CMNN causes and related risks will remain the predominant health priority among lower-income countries. Based on our 2040 worse health scenario, there is a real risk of HIV mortality rebounding if countries lose momentum against the HIV epidemic, jeopardising decades of progress against the disease. Continued technical innovation and increased health spending, including development assistance for health targeted to the world's poorest people, are likely to remain vital components to charting a future where all populations can live full, healthy lives. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

High burden of co-morbidity and mortality among severely malnourished children admitted to outpatient therapeutic programme facilities in the conflict setting of Borno, Nigeria: a retrospective review.

OBJECTIVE: To present evidence on the burden and outcomes of co-morbidities among severely malnourished (SAM) children admitted to outpatient therapeutic programme (OTP) facilities in the conflict setting of Borno, Nigeria. DESIGN: Retrospective medical chart review. SETTING: Facility-based study.ParticipantsChildren aged 6-59 months with SAM enrolled in OTP between June and November 2016 whose medical records were analysed. Only pneumonia and diarrhoea were examined due to data limitations. Stata software was used for descriptive, multivariate and survival analyses. RESULTS: Records of 396 children with median age of 15 months were identified and analysed from the date of enrolment to exit from OTP. Mean length of stay in OTP was 61d, with co-infected SAM children having shorter stay (P=0·006). Of the total, 148 (37·4 %) had at least one co-morbidity (pneumonia or diarrhoea), of which thirty-nine (26·4 %) had both. Cumulative rate of mortality during follow-up time was 9·5 (95 % CI 6·0, 15·1) per 10 000 child-days; SAM children with co-morbidities were ten times more likely to die than those without (hazard ratio=10·2; 95 % CI 3·4, 31·0). In multivariable analysis, co-morbidity (P=0·01), oedema (P=0·003), dehydration (P=0·02) and weight on admission (P=0·01) were associated with mortality. Both recovery and defaulter rates (57·8 and 36·1 %, respectively) did not meet SPHERE standards. CONCLUSIONS: Children with SAM and co-morbidities are less likely to survive, presenting a significant barrier in improving child survival. The findings call for integrated OTP models that incorporate clinical algorithms and ensure prompt referral for SAM children with co-morbidity.

Improving screening for malnourished children at high risk of death: a study of children aged 6-59 months in rural Senegal.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether children with concurrent wasting and stunting require therapeutic feeding and to better understand whether multiple diagnostic criteria are needed to identify children with a high risk of death and in need of treatment. DESIGN: Community-based cohort study, following 5751 children through time. Each child was visited up to four times at 6-month intervals. Anthropometric measurements were taken at each visit. Survival was monitored using a demographic surveillance system operating in the study villages. SETTING: Niakhar, a rural area of the Fatick region of central Senegal.ParticipantsChildren aged 6-59 months living in thirty villages in the study area. RESULTS: Weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ) and mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) were independently associated with near-term mortality. The lowest WAZ threshold that, in combination with MUAC, detected all deaths associated with severe wasting or concurrent wasting and stunting was WAZ <-2·8. Performance for detecting deaths was best when only WAZ and MUAC were used. Additional criteria did not improve performance. Risk ratios for near-term death in children identified using WAZ and MUAC suggest that children identified by WAZ <-2·8 but with MUAC≥115 mm may require lower-intensity treatment than children identified using MUAC <115 mm. CONCLUSIONS: A combination of MUAC and WAZ detected all near-term deaths associated with severe anthropometric deficits including concurrent wasting and stunting. Therapeutic feeding programmes may achieve higher impact if WAZ and MUAC admission criteria are used.

Strong effect of Ecuador's conditional cash transfer program on childhood mortality from poverty-related diseases: a nationwide analysis.

BACKGROUND: The mortality rate in children under 5 years old (U5MR) has decreased considerably in Ecuador in the last decade; however, thousands of children continue to die from causes related to poverty. A social program known as Bono de Desarrollo Humano (BDH) was created to guarantee a minimum level of consumption for families and to reduce chronic malnutrition and preventable childhood diseases. We sought to evaluate the effect of the BDH program on mortality of children younger than 5 years, particularly from malnutrition, diarrheal diseases, and lower respiratory tract infections. METHODS: Mortality rates and BDH coverage from 2009 to 2014 were evaluated from the 144 (of 222) Ecuadorian counties with intermediate and high quality of vital information. A multivariable regression analyses for panel data was conducted by using a negative binomial regression model with fixed effects, adjusted for all relevant demographic and socioeconomic covariates. RESULTS: Our research shows that for each 1% increase in BDH county coverage there would be a decrease in U5MR from malnutrition of 3% (RR 0.971, 95% CI 0.953-0.989). An effect of BDH county coverage on mortality resulting from respiratory infections was also observed (RR 0.992, 95% CI 0.984-0.999). The BDH also reduced hospitalization rates in children younger than 5 years, overall and for diarrhea. CONCLUSIONS: A conditional cash transfer program such as BDH could contribute to the reduction of mortality due to causes related to poverty, such as malnutrition and respiratory infections. The coverage should be maintained -or increased in a period of economic crisis- and its implementation strengthened.

Undernourished children presenting to an urban emergency department of a tertiary hospital in Tanzania: a prospective descriptive study.

BACKGROUND: Childhood undernutrition causes significant morbidity and mortality in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). In Tanzania, the in-hospital prevalence of undernutrition in children under five years of age is approximated to be 30% with a case fatality rate of 8.8%. In Tanzania, the burden of undernourished children under five years of age presenting to emergency departments (EDs) and their outcomes are unknown. This study describes the clinical profiles and outcomes of this population presenting to the emergency department of Muhimbili National Hospital (ED-MNH), a large, urban hospital in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. METHODS: This was a prospective descriptive study of children aged 1-59 months presenting to the ED-MNH over eight weeks in July and August 2016. Enrolment occurred through consecutive sampling. Children less than minus one standard deviation below World Health Organization mean values for Weight for Height/Length, Height for Age, or Weight for Age were recruited. Structured questionnaires were used to document primary outcomes of patient demographics and clinical presentations, and secondary outcomes of 24-h and 30-day mortality. Data was summarised using descriptive statistics and relative risks (RR). RESULTS: A total of 449 children were screened, of whom 34.1% (n = 153) met criteria for undernutrition and 95.4% (n = 146) of those children were enrolled. The majority of these children, 56.2% (n = 82), were male and the median age was 19 months (IQR 10-31 months). They presented most frequently with fever 24.7% (n = 36) and cough 24.0% (n = 35). Only 6.7% (n = 9) were diagnosed with acute undernutrition by ED-MNH physicians. Mortality at 24 h and 30 days were 2.9% (n = 4) and 12.3% (n = 18) respectively. A decreased level of consciousness with Glasgow Coma Scale below fifteen on arrival to the ED and tachycardia from initial vital signs were found to be associated with a statistically significant increased risk of death in undernourished children, with mortality rates of 16.1% (n = 23), and 24.6% (n = 35), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In an urban ED of a tertiary referral hospital in Tanzania, undernutrition remains under-recognized and is associated with a high rate of in-hospital mortality.

Weight-for-Height Z Score and Mid-Upper Arm Circumference as Predictors of Mortality in Children with Severe Acute Malnutrition.

Background: Mortality associated with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) could be reduced by screening malnourished children for those most vulnerable to death. We compared the weight-for-height Z score (WHZ) and mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) as predictors of mortality in children with SAM. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study spanning over 8 years, using records of children aged 6-59 months, hospitalized for SAM and discharged alive or who died during hospitalization. Results: Area under the curve was greater for MUAC [0.809 (95% CI, 0.709-0.911, p = 0.001)] than WHZ [0.649 (95% CI, 0.524-0.774, p = 0.032)]. MUAC predicted death better [sensitivity: 95.5%, specificity: 25.0%, positive likelihood ratio (PLR): 1.27, negative likelihood ratio (NLR): 0.18] than WHZ (sensitivity: 86.4%, specificity: 21.4%, PLR: 1.10, NLR: 0.64). Best MUAC and WHZ cut-offs for predicting death (10.3 cm and -4, respectively) were most accurate in infants aged <12 months, the former being more accurate. Conclusion: MUAC predicts death better than WHZ in children with SAM.

Metabolomic Changes in Serum of Children with Different Clinical Diagnoses of Malnutrition.

BACKGROUND: Mortality in children with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) remains high despite standardized rehabilitation protocols. Two forms of SAM are classically distinguished: kwashiorkor and marasmus. Children with kwashiorkor have nutritional edema and metabolic disturbances, including hypoalbuminemia and hepatic steatosis, whereas marasmus is characterized by severe wasting. The metabolic changes underlying these phenotypes have been poorly characterized, and whether homeostasis is achieved during hospital stay is unclear. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to characterize metabolic differences between children with marasmus and kwashiorkor at hospital admission and after clinical stabilization and to compare them with stunted and nonstunted community controls. METHODS: We studied children aged 9-59 mo from Malawi who were hospitalized with SAM (n = 40; 21 with kwashiorkor and 19 with marasmus) or living in the community (n = 157; 78 stunted and 79 nonstunted). Serum from patients with SAM was obtained at hospital admission and 3 d after nutritional stabilization and from community controls. With the use of targeted metabolomics, 141 metabolites, including amino acids, biogenic amines, acylcarnitines, sphingomyelins, and phosphatidylcholines, were measured. RESULTS: At admission, most metabolites (128 of 141; 91%) were lower in children with kwashiorkor than in those with marasmus, with significant differences in several amino acids and biogenic amines, including those of the kynurenine-tryptophan pathway. Several phosphatidylcholines and some acylcarnitines also differed. Patients with SAM had profiles that were profoundly different from those of stunted and nonstunted controls, even after clinical stabilization. Amino acids and biogenic amines generally improved with nutritional rehabilitation, but most sphingomyelins and phosphatidylcholines did not. CONCLUSIONS: Children with kwashiorkor were metabolically distinct from those with marasmus, and were more prone to severe metabolic disruptions. Children with SAM showed metabolic profiles that were profoundly different from stunted and nonstunted controls, even after clinical stabilization. Therefore, metabolic recovery in children with SAM likely extends beyond discharge, which may explain the poor long-term outcomes in these children. This trial was registered at isrctn.org as ISRCTN13916953.

Global challenges in acute diarrhea.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Childhood diarrhea is the most common cause of morbidity and mortality, especially in the low and middle-income countries. The burden of child mortality because of diarrhea has declined, but still a lot is desired not only to reduce diarrhea-specific mortality but reduce the overall incidence, and hence the morbidity associated with childhood diarrhea. RECENT FINDINGS: A recent Lancet series on diarrhea suggests that amplification of the current interventions can eliminate virtually all preventable diarrhea deaths. A refocused attention and strategy and collective effort from the multilateral entities to promote water sanitation and hygiene, rotavirus vaccination, nutrition, and improved case management can bridge gaps and tackle the existing undue burden of deaths because of diarrhea. SUMMARY: Investment toward preventing and controlling childhood diarrhea should be a priority, especially when the existing solution is plausible for implementation at scale and in underprivileged settings.

Trends and determinants of inequities in childhood stunting in Bangladesh from 1996/7 to 2014.

BACKGROUND: We explore long-term trends and determinants of socioeconomic inequities in chronic childhood undernutrition measured by stunting among under-five children in Bangladesh. Given that one in three children remain stunted in Bangladesh, the socioeconomic mapping of stunting prevalence may be critical in designing public policies and interventions to eradicate childhood undernutrition. METHODS: Six rounds of Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey data are utilized, spanning the period 1996/97 to 2014. Using recognized measures of absolute and relative inequality (namely, absolute and relative difference, concentration curve and index), we quantify trends, and decompose changes in the concentration index to identify factors that best explain observed dynamics. RESULTS: Despite remarkable improvements in average nutritional status over the last two decades, socio-economic inequalities have persisted, and according to some measures, even worsened. For example, expressed as rate-ratios, the relative inequality in under-five stunting increased by 56% and the concentration index more than doubled between 1996/97 and 2014. Decomposition analyses find that wealth and maternal factors such as mothers' schooling and short stature are major contributors to observed socio-economic inequalities in child undernutrition and their changes over time. CONCLUSIONS: Reflecting on recent success around socioeconomic and gender equity in child mortality, and the weak legacy of nutrition policy in Bangladesh, we suggest that nutrition programming energies be focused specifically on the most disadvantaged and applied at scale to close socioeconomic gaps in stunting prevalence.

Comparison of weight-for-height and mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) in a therapeutic feeding programme in South Sudan: is MUAC alone a sufficient criterion for admission of children at high risk of mortality?

OBJECTIVE: The present study was performed to describe the operational implications of using mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) as a single admission criterion for treatment of severe acute malnutrition in South Sudan. DESIGN: We performed a retrospective analysis of routine programme data of children with severe acute malnutrition aged 6-59 months admitted to a therapeutic feeding programme using weight-for-height Z-score (WHZ) and/or MUAC. To understand the implications of using MUAC as a single admission criterion, we compared patient characteristics and treatment outcomes for children admitted with MUAC<115 mm (irrespective of WHZ) v. children admitted with WHZ<-3 and MUAC≥115 mm. RESULTS: Of 2205 children included for analysis, 719 (32·6 %) were admitted to the programme with MUAC<115 mm and 1486 (67·4 %) with WHZ<-3 and MUAC≥115 mm. Children who would have been admitted using a single MUAC<115 mm criterion were more severely malnourished and more likely to be female and younger. Compared with children admitted with WHZ<-3 and MUAC≥115 mm, children who would have been admitted using MUAC<115 mm were less likely to recover (54 % v. 69 %) and had higher risk of death (4 % v. 1 %), but responded to treatment with greater weight and MUAC gains. MUAC<115 mm would have failed to identify 33 % of deaths, while 98 % were identified by WHZ<-3 alone and 100 % by MUAC<130 mm. CONCLUSIONS: The study shows that MUAC<115 mm identified more severely malnourished children with a higher risk of mortality but failed to identify a third of the children who died. Admission criteria for therapeutic feeding should be adapted to the programmatic context with consideration for both operational and public health implications.

Predictors of nutritional recovery time and survival status among children with severe acute malnutrition who have been managed in therapeutic feeding centers, Southern Ethiopia: retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Malnutrition remains to be one of the most common causes of morbidity and mortality among children in developing countries. The prevalence of wasting in Ethiopia remained about 10 % for the past ten years. Mortality rate of children with severe acute malnutrition treated in inpatient set ups has remained unacceptably high. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted in Southern Ethiopia. The study population were children with severe acute malnutrition aged from 6 to 59 months who have been managed at Karat and Fasha stabilization centers between September 30, 2013, and Sep. 29, 2014. The total sample size was 420 and pretested questionnaire was used. Kaplan Meier analysis was used to estimate time to nutritional recovery and Cox proportional-hazard regression analysis was carried out to determine independent predictors. RESULTS: Nutritional recovery rate was 3.61 per 100 person day observations. Median nutritional recovery time was 22 and 29 days for edematous malnourished and severely wasted children respectively. The independent predictors of nutritional recovery rate were: stabilization center (AHR = 1.4, 95 % CI: 1.1-1.7), malnutrition status (AHR = 1.8, 95 % CI: 1.3-2.4), weight (AHR = 1.5, 95 % CI: 1.2-1.9), mid- upper arm circumference (AHR = 1.4, 95 % CI: 1.1-1.9), inpatient complications (AHR = 2.2, 95 % CI: 1.4-3.5) and did not lose edema within four days of inpatient treatment (AHR = 2.3, 95 % CI: 1.1-4.8). CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study confirm the probability of surviving gets slimmer with inpatient complications and staying longer in stabilization centers. So, to prevent complications and enhance recovery rate due emphasis should be given in improving early detection and treatment of severely malnourished children in Ethiopia.

Survival status and predictors of mortality in severely malnourished children admitted to Jimma University Specialized Hospital from 2010 to 2012, Jimma, Ethiopia: a retrospective longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Although community based treatment of severe acute malnutrition has been advocated for in recent years, facility based treatment of severe acute malnutrition is still required. Therefore, information on the treatment outcomes of malnutrition and potential predictors of mortality among severely malnourished children admitted to hospitals is critical for the improvement of quality care. Thus, the aim of this study was to assess survival status and predictors of mortality in severely malnourished children admitted to Jimma University Specialized Hospital from September 11, 2010 to September 10, 2012. METHODS: Retrospective longitudinal study was conducted at Jimma University Specialized Hospital. From September 11, 2010 to September 10, 2012 available data from severely malnourished children admitted to the hospital were reviewed. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 20 for windows. Bivariate and multivariable analyses were performed by Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression to identify clinical characteristics associated with mortality. RESULT: A total of 947 children were enrolled into the study. An improvement, death and abscond rate were 77.8, 9.3 and 12.9% respectively. The median duration from admission to death was 7 days. The average length of stay in the hospital and average weight gain were 17.4 days and 10.4 g/kg/day respectively. The main predictors of earlier hospital deaths were age less than 24 months (AHR = 1.9, 95 % CI [1.2-2.9]), hypothermia (AHR = 3.0, 95% CI [1.4-6.6]), impaired consciousness level (AHR = 2.6, 95% CI [1.5-4.5]), dehydration (AHR = 2.3, 95% CI [1.3-4.0]), palmar pallor (AHR = 2.1, 95% CI [1.3-3.3]) and co-morbidity/complication at admission (AHR = 3.7, 95% CI [1.9-7.2]). CONCLUSION: The treatment outcomes (improvement rate, death rate, average length of stay in the hospital and average weight gain) were better than most reports in the literatures and in agreement with minimum international standard set for management of severe acute malnutrition. Intervention to further reduce earlier deaths should focus on young children with hypothermia, altered mental status, dehydration, anemia and comorbidities.

Late presentation to hospital services necessitates greater community-based care for malnourished children.

The records for all paediatric deaths (ages 0-14) in a large hospital in urban Southern Africa were examined for a 3 year period (January 2007 to February 2010), to explore the role of malnutrition in paediatric mortality in this region. A total of 516 records were obtained, demonstrating that malnutrition was the primary or secondary cause of death in 35% of cases. It was also found that children presented very late to hospital services, with an average length of final admission of only 0-3 days. The rate of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection was found to be very high, although low testing rates limits the analysis of these figures. Malnutrition remains an important factor in paediatric mortality in southern Africa, contributing to approximately 35% of deaths. Furthermore, fatal cases presented very late to hospital services. In light of this, increased community-based therapy would be beneficial. Implementation of universal HIV testing would also be valuable.

Wasting and stunting--similarities and differences: policy and programmatic implications.

Wasting and stunting are often presented as two separate forms of malnutrition requiring different interventions for prevention and/or treatment. These two forms of malnutrition, however, are closely related and often occur together in the same populations and often in the same children. Wasting and stunting are both associated with increased mortality, especially when both are present in the same child. A better understanding of the pathophysiology of these two different forms of malnutrition is needed to design efficient programs. A greatly reduced muscle mass is characteristic of severe wasting, but there is indirect evidence that it also occurs in stunting. A reduced muscle mass increases the risk of death during infections and also in many other different pathological situations. Reduced muscle mass may represent a common mechanism linking wasting and stunting with increased mortality. This suggests that to decrease malnutrition-related mortality, interventions should aim at preventing both wasting and stunting, which often share common causes. Also, this suggests that treatment interventions should focus on children who are both wasted and stunted and therefore have the greatest deficits in muscle mass, instead of focusing on one or the other form of malnutrition. Interventions should also focus on young infants and children, who have a low muscle mass in relation to body weight to start with. Using mid-upper-arm circumference (MUAC) to select children in need of treatment may represent a simple way to target young wasted and stunted children efficiently in situations where these two conditions are present. Wasting is also associated with decreased fat mass. A decreased fat mass is frequent but inconsistent in stunting. Fat secretes multiple hormones, including leptin, which may have a stimulating effect on the immune system. Depressed immunity resulting from low fat stores may also contribute to the increased mortality observed in wasting. This may represent another common mechanism linking wasting and stunting with increased mortality in situations where stunting is associated with reduced fat mass. Leptin may also have an effect on bone growth. This may explain why wasted children with low fat stores have reduced linear growth when their weight-for-height remains low. It may also explain the frequent association of stunting with previous episodes of wasting. Stunting, however, can occur in the absence of wasting and even in overweight children. Thus, food supplementation should be used with caution in populations where stunting is not associated with wasting and low fat stores.

Metabolomics in nutrition research: biomarkers predicting mortality in children with severe acute malnutrition.

BACKGROUND: Millions of the world's children suffer from malnutrition, which predisposes to death from diarrhea and a variety of infectious diseases. Mortality rates among infants and toddlers remain staggeringly high, in part because the pathogenesis of acute malnutrition and its complications remains poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: We used metabolomic analysis to characterize the metabolic status of Ugandan children with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and to delineate changes in hormones, metabolites, growth factors, and cytokines during nutritional therapy. We hypothesized that hormonal and metabolic factors measured at presentation would associate with, or predict, subsequent mortality during treatment. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study of 75 severely malnourished children 6 months to 5 years of age treated as inpatients with F-75 and F-100 and supplemental micronutrients; after discharge, they received ready-to-use therapeutic food (RUTF). This increased the mean weight-for-height z-score (WHZ) from -4.27 to -1.75 SD. Blood samples were obtained at presentation, after 2 weeks of inpatient therapy, and after 4 to 10 weeks of RUTF. Plasma samples were analyzed by tandem mass spectrometry and microassays. RESULTS: At presentation there were high levels of nonesterified fatty acids (NEFA), ketones, and even-chain acylcarnitines, indicating active lipolysis and fatty acid oxidation. In contrast, albumin, amino acids, and C3 carnitine, a by-product of branched-chain amino acids, were low. Levels of insulin, insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1), adiponectin, and leptin were low, while levels of ghrelin, growth hormone, cortisol, interleukin 6 (IL-6), peptide YY (PYY), and glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) were high. The metabolic and hormonal changes were reversed by formula feeding and RUTF. Biomarkers associated with mortality included HIV, WHZ, and mid-upper-arm circumference (MUAC); the biochemical factor associated most strongly with mortality was low leptin, a marker of adipose reserve and modulator of immune function. CONCLUSIONS: Low leptin predicts mortality in edematous and nonedematous-patients with SAM. Leptin assays might be used to identify malnourished children at highest risk for death.

Assessment of Nutritional Status in Children With Cancer and Effectiveness of Oral Nutritional Supplements.

Malnutrition is a common consequence of cancer in children, but the most effective methods of nutrition intervention are under debate. We aimed to evaluate the nutritional status of children diagnosed with cancer, and to investigate the effect of oral nutritional supplements on anthropometric measurements, biochemical parameters, and outcome. A randomized clinical study of 45 newly diagnosed cancer patients was performed. Anthropometric and biochemical data and related factors were assessed at 0, 3, and 6 months after diagnosis. On initial anthropometric assessment, prevalence of malnutrition by weight or height was found to be lower as compared with body mass index (BMI), or weight for height (WFH), or arm anthropometry. Twenty-six of the patients (55%) received oral nutritional supplement. During the second 3 months after diagnosis, there was a statistically significant decrease in number of the patients with WFH <90th percentile and BMI <5th percentile (P = .003 and P = .04, respectively). Infectious complications occurred more frequently in malnourished patients during first 3 months, and survival of children who were malnourished at the 6th month was significantly lower than that of well-nourished children (P = .003). On laboratory assessment, serum prealbumin levels of the all subjects were below normal ranges, but no relation was found for serum prealbumin or albumin levels in patients who were malnourished or not at diagnosis. Nutritional intervention is necessary to promote normal development and increase functional status as a child receives intensive treatment. Protein- and energy-dense oral nutritional supplements are effective for preventing weight loss in malnourished children.