Propuesta de un modelo SYIR modificado para predecir la cinemática de la epidemia por COVID-19 / Proposal for a modified SYIR model to predict the kinematics of the COVID-19 epidemic
Marcon, Agustina; Zamora, Rafael; Márquez, Matías.
Salud(i)ciencia (Impresa)
; 24(1/2): 25-32, jun. 2020. tab.
Artigo
em Espanhol
| BINACIS, LILACS | ID: biblio-1140640
In late 2019, an infection in humans by the SARS-CoV-2 virus was detected for the first time in Wuhan, China. By February, several countries had sustained viral circulation. On March 11, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a global pandemic. Initially, one of the main concerns regarding the spread of this pathogen was the possible lack of capacity of health systems to absorb the demand for resources in a pandemic situation. At the local level, on March 19 a measure of "social, preventive and mandatory isolation" was established, from March 20 to March 31, 2020, in order to protect public health, which was later extended until March 26 April through DNU 335/2020. MEDICUS is a private medicine company with representation throughout Argentina for 48 years. 85% of its affiliates reside in the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires (AMBA), Argentina. The objective of this study is to propose a modified SYIR (Susceptible-Contagious-Infective-Recovered) model, with the purpose of generating a monitoring tool that can anticipate the behavior of the COVID-19 pandemic in the AMBA population of a company prepayment, and the consequences of the measures adopted by the health authorities and their compliance over time. In the case of MEDICUS, for the optimistic scenario, a start of the peak of cases is expected in the first week of June and an end in late November, with a peak in early September; the pessimistic scenario begins the peak in mid-April, reaches its maximum in late May and ends in mid-June. It presents a much larger number of cases, more concentrated in time. The moderate scenario is an intermediate of both. The COVID-19 pandemic is a huge challenge for all health systems in the world, not just for Argentina. In our study, we forecast three possible scenarios for the behavior of the pandemic (optimistic, moderate and pessimistic) that will depend on the characteristics, adherence and persistence of the isolation measures in our country. Given the current dynamics and compliance with these measures, we estimate it possible that the real measure is somewhere between the optimistic and moderate scenarios.
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AR392.1
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