Change in mandibular trabecular pattern and hip fracture rate in elderly women.

OBJECTIVES: To determine if alterations of trabecular pattern, or the rate of change of jaw trabeculae, are associated with rate of hip fracture. METHODS: Participants in a population-based study of residents of a California retirement community (Leisure World Cohort Study) were asked for permission to obtain their dental radiographs. Periapical radiographs were retrieved on 598 women (average age at time of first radiograph=77 years). Several measurements of trabecular pattern (strut analysis), textural properties (run-length analysis) and Fourier analysis were made in several anatomical regions of the jaw. These trabecular features and clinical information self-reported by subjects in the early 1980s were examined for association with hip fracture rate using Cox proportional-hazard regression. RESULTS: Rate of hip fracture increased with decreasing average length of node-to-terminus struts in the mandibular incisor region. Each 0.01 mm per year decrease in the average length of node-to-terminus struts increased hip fracture rate by a factor of 2.9 (P=0.02, accuracy=73%). Inclusion of clinical parameters improved the predictive model compared with use of the radiographic parameter alone (accuracy=79%). Similar results were seen for percent change per year in this parameter. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in radiographic trabecular structure, augmented with clinical information, are predictive of hip fracture in elderly women. Further refinement of both the radiographic and clinical parameters may lead to a screening process accessible to a large number of women and to early diagnosis and treatment of osteoporosis.