Climate modelling: Northern Hemisphere circulation.
Nature
; 437(7058): 496, 2005 Sep 22.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-16177779
ABSTRACT
Air pressure at sea level during winter has decreased over the Arctic and increased in the Northern Hemisphere subtropics in recent decades, a change that has been associated with 50% of the Eurasian winter warming observed over the past 30 years, with 60% of the rainfall increase in Scotland and with 60% of the rainfall decrease in Spain. This trend is inconsistent with the simulated response to greenhouse-gas and sulphate-aerosol changes, but it has been proposed that other climate influences--such as ozone depletion--could account for the discrepancy. Here I compare observed Northern Hemisphere sea-level pressure trends with those simulated in response to all the major human and natural climate influences in nine state-of-the-art coupled climate models over the past 50 years. I find that these models all underestimate the circulation trend. This inconsistency suggests that we cannot yet simulate changes in this important property of the climate system or accurately predict regional climate changes.
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Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Simulação por Computador
/
Clima
/
Movimentos do Ar
/
Modelos Teóricos
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
País/Região como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2005
Tipo de documento:
Article