The effect of climate variation on agro-pastoral production in Africa.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
; 103(9): 3049-53, 2006 Feb 28.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-16492727
Using national crop and livestock production records from 1961-2003 and satellite-derived data on pasture greenness from 1982-2003 we show that the productivity of crops, livestock, and pastures in Africa is predictably associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. The causal relations of these results are partly understandable through the associations between the atmospheric fluctuations and African rainfall. The range of the explained among-year variation in crop production in Africa as a whole corresponds to the nutritional requirements for approximately 20 million people. Results suggest reduced African food production if the global climate changes toward more El Niño-like conditions, as most climate models predict. Maize production in southern Africa is most strongly affected by El Niño events. Management measures include annual changes in crop selection and storage strategies in response to El Niño Southern Oscillation-based and North Atlantic Oscillation-based predictions for the next growing season.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Clima
/
Produtos Agrícolas
/
Agricultura
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
País/Região como assunto:
Africa
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2006
Tipo de documento:
Article