Prediction of bone loss using biochemical markers of bone turnover.

UNLABELLED: The association between baseline levels of eleven bone turnover markers and 5-year rate of bone density change was prospectively studied in a population-based sample of 601 75-year-old women. Several bone formation and resorption markers as well as urinary osteocalcin were modestly correlated to rate of bone density change. INTRODUCTION: Prediction of bone loss by bone turnover markers (BTMs) has been investigated with conflicting results. There is limited information in the elderly. METHODS: Eleven bone turnover markers were analyzed in 75-year old women in the OPRA study (n = 601) and compared to the 5-year change of areal bone mineral density (aBMD) in seven skeletal regions. RESULTS: Annual aBMD change varied between +0.4% (spine) and -2.0% (femoral neck). Significant associations (p < 0.01) were found for four different serum osteocalcins (S-OCs) (standardized regression coefficient -0.20 to -0.22), urinary deoxypyridinoline (-0.19), serum TRACP5b (-0.19), serum CTX-I (-0.21), two of the three urinary osteocalcins (U-OCs) (-0.16) and aBMD change of the leg region (derived from the total body measurement). After adjustment for baseline aBMD, associations were found for all S-OCs (-0.11 to -0.16), two of the three U-OCs (-0.14 to -0.16) and aBMD change at the total hip, and for three of the four S-OCs (-0.14 to -0.15), S-TRACP5b (-0.11), two of the three U-OCs (-0.14 to -0.15) and aBMD change at the femoral neck. There were no significant results concerning aBMD change at the spine. CONCLUSION: This study indicates that BTMs are correlated with aBMD loss in some skeletal regions in elderly women.