A mathematical model for Plasmodium vivax malaria transmission: estimation of the impact of transmission-blocking immunity in an endemic area.

ABSTRACT

We have developed a multi-state mathematical model to describe the transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria; the model accommodates variable transmission-blocking/enhancing immunity during the course of a blood infection, a short memory for boosting immunity, and relapses. Using the model, we simulated the incidence of human malaria, sporozoite rates in the vector population, and the level of transmission-blocking immunity for the infected population over a period of time. Field data from an epidemiological study conducted in Kataragama in the south of Sri Lanka were used to test the results obtained. The incidence of malaria during the study period was simulated satisfactorily. The impact of naturally-acquired transmission-blocking immunity on malaria transmission under different vectorial capacities was also simulated. The results show that at low vectorial capacities, e.g., just above the threshold for transmission, the effect of transmission-blocking immunity is very significant; however, the effect is lower at higher vectorial capacities.