The macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza: estimates from models of the United Kingdom, France, Belgium and The Netherlands.
Eur J Health Econ
; 11(6): 543-54, 2010 Dec.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-19997956
ABSTRACT
The 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) showed that infectious disease outbreaks can have notable macroeconomic impacts. The current H1N1 and potential H5N1 flu pandemics could have a much greater impact. Using a multi-sector single country computable general equilibrium model of the United Kingdom, France, Belgium and The Netherlands, together with disease scenarios of varying severity, we examine the potential economic cost of a modern pandemic. Policies of school closure, vaccination and antivirals, together with prophylactic absence from work are evaluated and their cost impacts are estimated. Results suggest GDP losses from the disease of approximately 0.5-2% but school closure and prophylactic absenteeism more than triples these effects. Increasing school closures from 4 weeks at the peak to entire pandemic closure almost doubles the economic cost, but antivirals and vaccinations seem worthwhile. Careful planning is therefore important to ensure expensive policies to mitigate the pandemic are effective in minimising illness and deaths.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Saúde Pública
/
Surtos de Doenças
/
Influenza Humana
/
Política de Saúde
Tipo de estudo:
Health_economic_evaluation
/
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Humans
País/Região como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2010
Tipo de documento:
Article