Stochastic model of the potential spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza from an infected commercial broiler operation in Georgia.
Avian Dis
; 54(1 Suppl): 713-9, 2010 Mar.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-20521720
ABSTRACT
The potential spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza among commercial broiler farms in Georgia, U. S. A., was mathematically modeled. The dynamics of the spread within the first infected flock were estimated using an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) deterministic model, and predicted that grower detection of flock infection is most likely 5 days after virus introduction. Off-farm spread of virus was estimated stochastically for this period, predicting a mean range of exposed farms from 0-5, depending on the density of farms in the area. Modeled off-farm spread was most frequently associated with feed trucks (highest daily probability and number of farm visits) and with company personnel or hired help (highest level of bird contact).
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Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Galinhas
/
Processos Estocásticos
/
Modelos Estatísticos
/
Influenza Aviária
/
Modelos Biológicos
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Animals
País/Região como assunto:
America do norte
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2010
Tipo de documento:
Article