Deterministic model to evaluate the impact of lactational treatment of subclinical mastitis due to coagulase-negative staphylococci.

Coagulase-negative staphylococci (CNS) are the most frequently isolated bacteria from milk samples in several studies worldwide. Despite their relative frequency, specific measures aiming at their control are not well established. One possible measure to include in a control programme is lactational antimicrobial treatment. The decision to perform such treatment, as well as other actions on farm, should be based on the likelihood of financial return. A deterministic model was used to evaluate whether performing an antimicrobial treatment during the lactation for quarters infected with CNS was financially justifiable. Input variables for the impact of CNS on udder health were based on a previous study by the same authors and on available literature on the subject. Prices included in the model were based on 2009/2010 conditions in Portugal. The average result per antimicrobial treated quarter was a net loss of €38·74. Performing a sensitivity analysis to evaluate how systematic variation of the input variables of the model would lead to outcome changes showed that variation in input variables nearly always led to a negative outcome, with the greatest variation in losses observed for variation in the length of treatment and milk withdrawal period (-€46·26 to -€28·49). The situations in which a net benefit was to be expected included the bulk tank somatic cell count decreasing to a level corresponding to a premium payment or to penalties being avoided, and the prevention of transmission of CNS in the milking parlour when the possibility of transmission was at its highest level. For most situations, lactational treatment of CNS subclinical mastitis was not financially justifiable.