[An indirect estimation of current and future inequalities in the frequency of end stage renal disease in Mexico]. / Una estimación indirecta de las desigualdades actuales y futuras en la frecuencia de la enfermedad renal crónica terminal en México.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To describe current and future health inequalities in End Stage Renal Disease in Mexico (ESRD) in Mexican states with varying degrees of marginality. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Using results, obtained by us in 2009, of an indirect estimation of incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates, and of the average case duration, we grouped these data according to the social deprivation level of the Mexican states. We measured health inequalities using the Health Concentration Index. RESULTS: We found rising inequalities, between 2005 and 2025, in ESRD incidence, prevalence and mortality rates, as well as in the average duration of cases. CONCLUSION: We project an important increase in the prevalence of ESRD for 2025 which will be greater in the Mexican states with more marginality. This will increase health inequities already present and represent important challenges for health care financing, especially if no action is taken to control the causes and progression of ESRD.