Factors predicting change in frequency of heavy drinking days among alcohol-dependent participants in the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC).

ABSTRACT

AIMS: To discover the predictors of change in the frequency of heavy drinking (HD) over a 4-year period in alcohol dependent (AD)-individuals identified in the general population, namely, among participants of the US National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions interviewed at Wave 1 (2001-2002) and at Wave 2 (2004-2005). METHODS: The study cohort included subjects meeting DSM-IV criteria for AD in the past year at Wave 1 (n = 1484), who were present at Wave 2 (n = 1172) and had complete data on factors of interest (n = 1123). Frequency of HD was defined as the number of HD days (HDD) (≥5 drinks per day for men and ≥4 for women). Change in frequency of HDD from baseline (Wave 1) to ~3 years later (Wave 2) was determined. An analysis of covariance model (ANCOVA), adjusting for baseline HDD, was used to examine individual factors associated with change in frequency of HDD, while a multivariable regression model was employed to assess factors associated with change in frequency of HDD simultaneously. RESULTS: Overall, there was a decrease in mean (SE) HDD [from 119.4 (1.8) at Wave 1 to 82.5 (2.1) at Wave 2, P < 0.0001]. Compared with smokers, non-smokers had a mean (SE) HDD reduction of 13.4 (6.7), P < 0.05. AD criteria of tolerance was significantly associated (P < 0.05) with less reduction in HDD. Change in depression/dysthymia status was associated with greater reduction in HDD in the ANCOVA model, but not the fully adjusted multivariable model. CONCLUSION: Findings from this study suggest that smoking and AD criteria of tolerance are important factors for long-term follow-up of AD patients and they should influence the selection of the kinds of interventions required for AD patients to achieve maximal therapeutic benefit.