[Study on the influence of landscape elements regarding on the transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Changsha].

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To explore the influence of landscape elements on the transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Changsha. METHODS: A total of 327 cases of HFRS diagnosed between year 2005 - 2009 were recruited in the study. Based on the demographic data, meteorological data and the data of second national land survey during the same period, a GIS landscape elements database of HFRS at the township scale of Changsha was established. Spatial-temporal cluster analysis methods were adopted to explore the influence of landscape elements on the spatial-temporal distribution of HFRS in Changsha during the year of 2005 - 2009. RESULTS: The annual incidences of HFRS in Changsha between year 2005 - 2009 were 1.16/100 000 (70 cases), 0.95/100 000 (58 cases), 1.40/100 000(87 cases), 0.75/100 000(47 cases) and 1.02/100 000(65 cases) respectively. The results of poisson regression model analysis of principal component showed that the incidence of HFRS was positively correlated with farmland area (M = 29.00 km2) and urban and rural area (M = 6.12 km2; incidence rate ratios (IRR) = 1.34, 95% CI 1.27 - 1.41); but negatively correlated with forestland area (M = 39.00 km2; IRR = 0.67, 95% CI 0.55 - 0.81) and garden plot area (M = 0.99 km2; IRR = 0.74, 95% CI 0.63 - 0.86). A significant cluster of the spatial-temporal distribution of HFRS cases was found in the study. The primary cluster (28.9 N, 113.37 E, radius at 22.22 km, RR = 5.23, log likelihood ratio (LLR) = 51.61, P <0.01, 67 cases of HFRS and incidence at 4.4/100 000) was found between year 2006 and 2007; and the secondary cluster (28.2 N, 113.6 E, RR = 10.77, LLR = 16.01, P < 0.01, 11 cases of HFRS and the incidence at 10.6/100 000) was found between year 2008 and 2009. CONCLUSION: The landscape elements were found to be closely related to the prevalence and transmission of HFRS.