Plasma endothelin-1 level is a predictor of 10-year mortality in a general population: the Tanushimaru study.

BACKGROUND: Endothelin-1 (ET-1) is a potent vasoconstrictor and an elevated plasma level is a prognostic marker in patients with cardiovascular diseases and/or malignancies. We hypothesized that an elevated plasma level might be a prognostic marker even in subjects without apparent cardiovascular disease or malignancy at baseline. METHODS AND RESULTS: We measured plasma ET-1 levels in 1,440 healthy subjects over 40 years of age (580 men, 860 women) who were periodically followed for 10 years. The follow-up rate was 96.8%. Baseline plasma ET-1 levels were categorized into quartiles. Baseline plasma ET-1 levels were significantly associated with age, blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, renal function, uric acid and all-cause death, but not with cardiovascular or cancer death. Kaplan-Meier curves demonstrated that all-cause mortality was significantly higher in the highest quartile of ET-1 than in the lowest quartile. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis demonstrated that ET-1 was an independent predictor of all-cause death [hazard ratio: 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.23 per 1 pg/ml difference]. The hazard ratio of all-cause death in the highest quartile of plasma ET-1 (≥5.9 pg/ml) vs. the lowest quartile after adjusting for confounding factors was 1.54 (95% CI 1.09-2.20). CONCLUSIONS: The plasma ET-1 level may be a predictor of all-cause death in a healthy population.