Disease transmission on fragmented contact networks: livestock-associated Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in the Danish pig-industry.
Epidemics
; 4(4): 171-8, 2012 Dec.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-23351369
ABSTRACT
Animal trade in industrialised livestock-production systems creates a complex, heterogeneous, contact network that shapes between-herd transmission of infectious diseases. We report the results of a simple mathematical model that explores patterns of spread and persistence of livestock-associated Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (LA-MRSA) in the Danish pig-industry associated with this trade network. Simulations show that LA-MRSA can become endemic sustained by animal movements alone. Despite the extremely low predicted endemic prevalence, eradication may be difficult, and decreasing within-farm prevalence, or the time it takes a LA-MRSA positive farm to recover a negative status, fails to break long-term persistence. Our results suggest that a low level of non-movement induced transmission strongly affects MRSA dynamics, increasing endemic prevalence and probability of persistence. We also compare the model-predicted risk of 291 individual farms becoming MRSA positive, with results from a recent Europe-wide survey of LA-MRSA in holdings with breeding pigs, and find a significant correlation between contact-network connectivity properties and the model-estimated risk measure.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Infecções Estafilocócicas
/
Doenças dos Suínos
/
Comércio
/
Sus scrofa
/
Staphylococcus aureus Resistente à Meticilina
Tipo de estudo:
Prevalence_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Animals
País/Região como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2012
Tipo de documento:
Article