[A Bayesian model to investigate excess mortality during the dengue epidemic in Greater Metropolitan Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 2007-2008]. / Um modelo bayesiano para investigação de sobremortalidade durante epidemia de dengue na Região Metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, 2007-2008.

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study was to investigate excess mortality from dengue in Greater Metropolitan Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during an epidemic in 2007-2008. A Poisson dynamic model was tested to predict the number of deaths during these epidemic years. Inference was conducted with a Bayesian approach. Excess mortality was detected in March 2008 in children < 15 years. In addition, the highest number of reported dengue cases in Rio de Janeiro was in March and April 2008. Since the increase in mortality should be preceded by an increase in morbidity, one can hypothesize that there was excess mortality from dengue in children during the epidemic in Greater Metropolitan Rio de Janeiro in March 2008.