Preoperative nomogram for the identification of lymph node metastasis in early cervical cancer.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study is to construct a preoperative nomogram predicting lymph node metastasis (LNM) in early-cervical cancer patients. METHODS: Between 2009 and 2012, 493 early-cervical cancer patients received hysterectomy and pelvic/para-aortic lymphadenectomy. Patients who were diagnosed during 2009-2010 were assigned to a model-development cohort (n=304) and the others were assigned to a validation cohort (n=189). A multivariate logistic model was created from preoperative clinicopathologic data, from which a nomogram was developed and validated. A predicted probability of LNM<5% was defined as low risk. RESULTS: Age, tumour size assessed by magnetic resonance imaging, and LNM assessed by positron emission tomography/computed tomography were independent predictors of nodal metastasis. The nomogram incorporating these three predictors demonstrated good discrimination and calibration (concordance index=0.878; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.833-0.917). In the validation cohort, the discrimination accuracy was 0.825 (95% CI, 0.736-0.895). In the model-development cohort, 34% of them were classified as low risk and negative predictive value (NPV) was 99.0%. In the validation cohort, 38% were identified as low risk and NPV was 95.8%. Integrating the model-development and validation cohorts, negative likelihood ratio was 0.094 (95% CI, 0.036-0.248). CONCLUSION: A robust nomogram predicting LNM in early cervical cancer was developed. This model may improve clinical trial design and help physicians to decide whether lymphadenectomy should be performed.