Are value of information methods ready for prime time? An application to alternative treatment strategies for NSTEMI patients.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: The use of value of information methods to inform trial design has been widely advocated but there have been few empirical applications of these methods and there is little evidence they are widely used in decision making. This study considers the usefulness of value of information models in the context of a real clinical decision problem relating to alternative diagnostic strategies for patients with a recent non-ST elevated myocardial infarction. METHODS: A pretrial economic model is constructed to consider the cost-effectiveness of two competing strategies coronary angiography alone or in conjunction with fractional flow reserve measurement. A closed-form solution to the expected benefits of information is used with optimal sample size estimated for a range of models reflecting increasingly realistic assumptions and alternative decision contexts. RESULTS: Fractional flow reserve measurement is expected to be cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of GBP 1,621, however, there is considerable uncertainty in this estimate and consequently a large expected value to reducing this uncertainty via a trial. The recommended sample size is strongly affected by the reality of the assumptions of the expected value of information (EVI) model and the decision context. CONCLUSIONS: Value of information models can provide a simple and flexible approach to clinical trial design and are more consistent with the constraints and objectives of the healthcare system than traditional frequentist approaches. However, the variation in sample size estimates demonstrates that it is essential that appropriate model parameters and decision contexts are used in their application.