Application of space-time scan statistics to describe geographic and temporal clustering of visible drug activity.

ABSTRACT

Knowledge of the geographic and temporal clustering of drug activity can inform where health and social services are needed and can provide insight on the potential impact of local policies on drug activity. This ecologic study assessed the spatial and temporal distribution of drug activity in Baltimore, Maryland, prior to and following the implementation of a large urban redevelopment project in East Baltimore, which began in 2003. Drug activity was measured by narcotic calls for service at the neighborhood level. A space-time scan statistic approach was used to identify statistically significant clusters of narcotic calls for service across space and time, using a discrete Poisson model. After adjusting for economic deprivation and housing vacancy, clusters of narcotic calls for service were identified among neighborhoods located in Southeast, Northeast, Northwest, and West Baltimore from 2001 to 2010. Clusters of narcotic calls for service were identified among neighborhoods located in East Baltimore from 2001 to 2003, indicating a decrease in narcotic calls thereafter. A large proportion of clusters occurred among neighborhoods located in North and Northeast Baltimore after 2003, which indicated a potential spike during this time frame. These findings suggest potential displacement of drug activity coinciding with the initiation of urban redevelopment in East Baltimore. Space-time scan statistics should be used in future research to describe the potential implications of local policies on drug activity.