Risk index for pelvic organ prolapse based on established individual risk factors.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: To identify known risk factors for pelvic organ prolapse (POP) in a hospital cohort and to develop a prolapse risk index (PRI). METHODS: Risk factors for POP were recorded in women who underwent surgery with symptomatic POP (n = 500) or non-POP gynaecological conditions (n = 236). Descriptive statistics were determined by Chi-squared and Mann-Whitney U tests. Stepwise multivariate regression analysis was performed for all patients and subgroups by age (<60 and ≥60 years). Primary outcome measures were variables with the strongest impact on prolapse and PRI development. Secondary specificity, sensitivity, positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV, respectively), and Cohen's kappa statistic (κ). RESULTS: Stepwise multivariate regression analysis (n = 736) showed difficult obstetric history [odds ratio (OR) 10.04], family history of POP (OR 7.28), and ≥10 years since menopause (OR 4.53) were independent risk factors for prolapse (P < 0.001). When one of the three variables with the strongest influence on POP development was present, the PRI for all women showed a PPV of 82%, NPV of 68%, and κ of 0.47 for predicting symptomatic POP requiring treatment. In women under 60 years (n = 349), logistic regression revealed difficult obstetric history (OR 9.108), positive family history (OR 8.016), and body mass index (OR 2.274) as independent risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Eighty-seven percent of our patient cohort with symptomatic POP requiring therapy could be identified by the PRI, which may be useful for counselling and education.