Clinical Factors Associated With a Short Survival Time After Percutaneous Nephrostomy for Ureteric Obstruction in Cancer Patients: An Updated Model.

CONTEXT: Patients with advanced cancer can develop ureteric obstruction. Percutaneous nephrostomy (PCN) tube insertion can relieve this obstruction and prevent renal failure. PCN is associated with complications and can worsen quality of life. Prognostic models of survival after PCN in cancer patients can help identify the patients who will most likely benefit from this intervention. This work updates a prognostic model to predict overall survival in cancer patients after receiving PCN. OBJECTIVES: The primary objective was to assess survival of patients with malignant urinary obstruction after PCN tube insertion. The secondary objective was to identify factors associated with poor prognosis in this group of patients and externally validate an existing model. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of 211 patients who had malignant urinary obstruction and received PCN tube insertion. RESULTS: The median survival was 5.05 months (95% CI = 3.87-7.11; range 2-963 days). On univariate analysis, the factors significantly associated with shorter survival were type of malignancy, bilateral hydronephrosis, serum albumin <3.5 mg/dL, presence of metastasis, ascites, and pleural effusion (P < 0.05). Multivariate analysis using a Cox proportional hazards regression model showed that type of malignancy, serum albumin <3.5 mg/dL, pleural effusion, and bilateral hydronephrosis were significantly associated with shorter survival (P < 0.05). Using the latter three factors, we stratified patients into four prognostic groups: zero risk factors (32 patients), one risk factor (85 patients), two risk factors (78 patients), and three risk factors (16 patients). Median survival for each group was 17.6 months, 7.7 months, 2.2 months, and 1.7 months, respectively (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Survival in patients with malignant ureteric obstruction can range widely from a few days to a few years. The presented prognostic model is an updated model and can be used to identify patients with poor survival after PCN.