On the transmission dynamics of Buruli ulcer in Ghana: Insights through a mathematical model.
BMC Res Notes
; 8: 656, 2015 Nov 06.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-26545356
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Mycobacterium ulcerans is know to cause the Buruli ulcer. The association between the ulcer and environmental exposure has been documented. However, the epidemiology of the ulcer is not well understood. A hypothesised transmission involves humans being bitten by the water bugs that prey on mollusks, snails and young fishes.METHODS:
In this paper, a model for the transmission of Mycobacterium ulcerans to humans in the presence of a preventive strategy is proposed and analysed. The model equilibria are determined and conditions for the existence of the equilibria established. The model analysis is carried out in terms of the reproduction number [Formula see text]. The disease free equilibrium is found to be locally asymptotically stable for [Formula see text] The model is fitted to data from Ghana.RESULTS:
The model is found to exhibit a backward bifurcation and the endemic equilibrium point is globally stable when [Formula see text] Sensitivity analysis showed that the Buruli ulcer epidemic is highly influenced by the shedding and clearance rates of Mycobacterium ulcerans in the environment. The model is found to fit reasonably well to data from Ghana and projections on the future of the Buruli ulcer epidemic are also made.CONCLUSIONS:
The model reasonably fitted data from Ghana. The fitting process showed data that appeared to have reached a steady state and projections showed that the epidemic levels will remain the same for the projected time. The implications of the results to policy and future management of the disease are discussed.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Algoritmos
/
Mycobacterium ulcerans
/
Úlcera de Buruli
/
Modelos Teóricos
Tipo de estudo:
Prevalence_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Animals
/
Humans
País/Região como assunto:
Africa
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2015
Tipo de documento:
Article