Multivariable flexible modelling for estimating complete, smoothed life tables for sub-national populations.
BMC Public Health
; 15: 1240, 2015 12 16.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-27129577
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
The methods currently available to estimate age- and sex-specific mortality rates for sub-populations are subject to a number of important limitations. We propose two alternative multivariable approaches a relational model and a Poisson model both using restricted cubic splines.METHODS:
We evaluated a flexible Poisson and flexible relational model against the Elandt-Johnson approach in a simulation study using 100 random samples of population and death counts, with different sampling proportions and data arrangements. Estimated rates were compared to the original mortality rates using goodness-of-fit measures and life expectancy. We further investigated an approach for determining optimal knot locations in the Poisson model.RESULTS:
The flexible Poisson model outperformed the flexible relational and Elandt-Johnson methods with the smallest sample of data (1%). With the largest sample of data (20%), the flexible Poisson and flexible relational models performed comparably, though the flexible Poisson model displayed a slight advantage. Both approaches tended to underestimate infant mortality and thereby overestimate life expectancy at birth. The flexible Poisson model performed much better at young ages when knots were fixed a priori. For ages 30 and above, results were similar to the model with no fixed knots.CONCLUSIONS:
The flexible Poisson model is recommended because it derives robust and unbiased estimates for sub-populations without making strong assumptions about age-specific mortality profiles. Fixing knots a priori in the final model greatly improves fit at the young ages.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Expectativa de Vida
/
Modelos Estatísticos
/
Tábuas de Vida
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Adolescent
/
Adult
/
Aged
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Aged80
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Child
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Child, preschool
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Female
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Humans
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Infant
/
Male
País/Região como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2015
Tipo de documento:
Article