Epidemiological and financial indicators of hypertension in older adults in Mexico: challenges for health planning and management in Latin America.

ABSTRACT

This study estimated the epidemiological and financial indicators of hypertension in order to identify challenges in strategic planning and management for health systems in Latin America. This is a longitudinal study with a population base of 187 326 reported cases of older adults with hypertension, diagnosed at public health institutions in Mexico. The cost-evaluation method that was used was based on the instrumentation and consensus techniques. To estimate the epidemiological changes and financial consequences for 2015-2017, time series analyses and probabilistic models were constructed according to the Box-Jenkins technique. Regarding epidemiological changes for 2015 versus 2017, an increase of 8-12% is expected (p < 0.001). Comparing the economic impact in 2015 versus 2017 (p < 0.001), there is a 22% increase in financial requirements. The total amount estimated for hypertension in 2015 (in US dollars) was $1 575 671 330. It included $747 527 259 as direct costs and $829 144 071 as indirect costs. If the risk factors and the different healthcare services for older adults remain as they are currently, the financial consequences of epidemiological changes in older adults will have a major impact on the users' pockets, following in order of importance, on social security providers and on public assistance providers. The challenges and implications of our findings in the context of universal coverage reforms in Latin America reinforce the urgent need to develop more and better strategic planning for the prevention of chronic diseases. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.