Calibration power of the Braden scale in predicting pressure ulcer development.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Calibration is the degree of correspondence between the estimated probability produced by a model and the actual observed probability. The aim of this study was to investigate the calibration power of the Braden scale in predicting pressure ulcer development (PU). METHOD: A retrospective analysis was performed among consecutive patients in 2013. The patients were separated into training a group and a validation group. The predicted incidence was calculated using a logistic regression model in the training group and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used for assessing the goodness of fit. In the validation cohort, the observed and the predicted incidence were compared by the Chi-square (χ2) goodness of fit test for calibration power. RESULTS: We included 2585 patients in the study, of these 78 patients (3.0%) developed a PU. Between the training and validation groups the patient characteristics were non-significant (p>0.05). In the training group, the logistic regression model for predicting pressure ulcer was Logit(P) = -0.433*Braden score+2.616. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed no goodness fit (χ2=13.472; p=0.019). In the validation group, the predicted pressure ulcer incidence also did not fit well with the observed incidence (χ2=42.154, p=0.000 by Braden scores; and χ2=17.223, p=0.001 by Braden scale risk classification). CONCLUSION: The Braden scale has low calibration power in predicting PU formation.