Feasibility of dynamic risk prediction for hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis B.
Liver Int
; 38(4): 676-686, 2018 04.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-28865176
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND & AIMS:
Several risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development are available. We explored whether the use of risk prediction models can dynamically predict HCC development at different time points in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients.METHODS:
Between 2006 and 2014, 1397 CHB patients were recruited. All patients underwent serial transient elastography at intervals of >6 months.RESULTS:
The median age of this study population (931 males and 466 females) was 49.0 years. The median CU-HCC, REACH-B, LSM-HCC and mREACH-B score at enrolment were 4.0, 9.0, 10.0 and 8.0 respectively. During the follow-up period (median, 68.0 months), 87 (6.2%) patients developed HCC. All risk prediction models were successful in predicting HCC development at both the first liver stiffness (LS) measurement (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.067-1.467 in the subgroup without antiviral therapy [AVT] and 1.096-1.458 in the subgroup with AVT) and second LS measurement (HR = 1.125-1.448 in the subgroup without AVT and 1.087-1.249 in the subgroup with AVT). In contrast, neither the absolute nor percentage change in the scores from the risk prediction models predicted HCC development (all P > .05). The mREACH-B score performed similarly or significantly better than did the other scores (AUROCs at 5 years, 0.694-0.862 vs 0.537-0.875).CONCLUSIONS:
Dynamic prediction of HCC development at different time points was achieved using four risk prediction models, but not using the changes in the absolute and percentage values between two time points. The mREACH-B score was the most appropriate prediction model of HCC development among four prediction models.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Carcinoma Hepatocelular
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Hepatite B Crônica
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Fígado
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Cirrose Hepática
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Neoplasias Hepáticas
Tipo de estudo:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Etiology_studies
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Observational_studies
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Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Adult
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Female
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Humans
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Male
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Middle aged
País/Região como assunto:
Asia
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2018
Tipo de documento:
Article