Predicting temporal variation in zooplankton beta diversity is challenging.

Beta diversity, the spatial variation in species composition, has been related to different explanatory variables, including environmental heterogeneity, productivity and connectivity. Using a long-term time series of zooplankton data collected over 62 months in a tropical reservoir (Ribeirão das Lajes Reservoir, Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil), we tested whether beta diversity (as measured across six sites distributed along the main axis of the reservoir) was correlated with environmental heterogeneity (spatial environmental variation in a given month), chlorophyll-a concentration (a surrogate for productivity) and water level. We did not found evidence for the role of these predictors, suggesting the need to reevaluate predictions or at least to search for better surrogates of the processes that hypothetically control beta diversity variation. However, beta diversity declined over time, which is consistent with the process of biotic homogenization, a worldwide cause of concern.