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Lung cancer incidence trends in Uruguay 1990-2014: An age-period-cohort analysis.
Alonso, Rafael; Piñeros, Marion; Laversanne, Mathieu; Musetti, Carina; Garau, Mariela; Barrios, Enrique; Bray, Freddie.
Afiliação
  • Alonso R; National Cancer Registry, CHLCC, Uruguay; Department of Quantitative Methods, Faculty of Medicine, Montevideo, Uruguay. Electronic address: alonsor@urucan.org.uy.
  • Piñeros M; International Agency for Research on Cancer, Section of Cancer Surveillance, France.
  • Laversanne M; International Agency for Research on Cancer, Section of Cancer Surveillance, France.
  • Musetti C; National Cancer Registry, CHLCC, Uruguay.
  • Garau M; National Cancer Registry, CHLCC, Uruguay; Department of Quantitative Methods, Faculty of Medicine, Montevideo, Uruguay.
  • Barrios E; National Cancer Registry, CHLCC, Uruguay; Department of Quantitative Methods, Faculty of Medicine, Montevideo, Uruguay.
  • Bray F; International Agency for Research on Cancer, Section of Cancer Surveillance, France.
Cancer Epidemiol ; 55: 17-22, 2018 08.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29758490
BACKGROUND: Uruguay, a country with one of the highest lung cancer rates worldwide, initiated a series of comprehensive anti-smoking measures in 2005. We assess the tobacco control policies in the context of cohort-driven lung cancer incidence trends over a 25-year period, providing baseline predictions to 2035. METHODS: Using data from the National Cancer Registry of Uruguay, an age-period-cohort analysis of trends 1990-2014 was performed. The NORDPRED package was used to predict the annual number of new cases of lung cancer and incidence rates up to 2035. RESULTS: In men, age-standardised (world) rates declined from a peak of 165.6 in 1995 to 103.1 by 2014, translating to a 70% reduction in the risk of lung cancer in men born in 1970 relative to the early-1940s. In females, rates increased steadily from 18.3 in 1991 to 30.0 by 2014, with successive increases in risk among generations of women born 1940-1960. There is however evidence of a decline in observed rates in women born recently. Extrapolations of the trends indicate an 8% reduction in the mean number of new lung cancer cases in men by 2035, but a 69% increase in women. CONCLUSION: Despite observed and predicted reductions in lung cancer incidence in Uruguayan men, rates among women are set to continue to increase, with a large rise in the annual number of female lung cancer diagnoses expected before 2035. There are signals of a diminishing risk among recent generations of women born after 1960. The current analysis provides important baseline information in assessing the future impact of the recent tobacco control initiatives in Uruguay.
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Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Prevenção do Hábito de Fumar / Neoplasias Pulmonares Tipo de estudo: Etiology_studies / Incidence_studies / Observational_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Limite: Adult / Aged / Female / Humans / Male / Middle aged País/Região como assunto: America do sul / Uruguay Idioma: En Ano de publicação: 2018 Tipo de documento: Article

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Prevenção do Hábito de Fumar / Neoplasias Pulmonares Tipo de estudo: Etiology_studies / Incidence_studies / Observational_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Limite: Adult / Aged / Female / Humans / Male / Middle aged País/Região como assunto: America do sul / Uruguay Idioma: En Ano de publicação: 2018 Tipo de documento: Article