Harnessing uncertainty to approximate mechanistic models of interspecific interactions.

ABSTRACT

Because the Lotka-Volterra competitive equations posit no specific competitive mechanisms, they are exceedingly general, and can theoretically approximate any underlying mechanism of competition near equilibrium. In practice, however, these models rarely generate accurate predictions in diverse communities. We propose that this difference between theory and practice may be caused by how uncertainty propagates through Lotka-Volterra systems. In approximating mechanistic relationships with Lotka-Volterra models, associations among parameters are lost, and small variation can correspond to large and unrealistic changes in predictions. We demonstrate that constraining Lotka-Volterra models using correlations among parameters expected from hypothesized underlying mechanisms can reintroduce some of the underlying structure imposed by those mechanisms, thereby improving model predictions by both reducing bias and increasing precision. Our results suggest that this hybrid approach may combine some of the generality of phenomenological models with the broader applicability and meaningful interpretability of mechanistic approaches. These methods could be useful in poorly understood systems for identifying important coexistence mechanisms, or for making more accurate predictions.