Cervical Cancer in Khon Kaen, Thailand: Analysis of 1990-2014 Incidence Data and Prediction of Future Trends
Asian Pac J Cancer Prev
; 20(2): 369-375, 2019 Feb 26.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-30803194
ABSTRACT
Background:
Cervical cancer is the second most common cancer of women in Thailand. There have been no reports of incidence and future in Khon Kaen, a province in northeastern Thailand, where the relatively high prevalence gives evaluation of cervical cancer screening a high priority.Objectives:
To determine cervical cancer incidence rates in Khon Kaen for 19902014 and predict future trends until 2029.Methods:
Cancer incidence data from the Khon Kaen population-based cancer registry were analyzed and age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) were estimated. Joinpoint analysis and age-period-cohort modeling were applied for data from 1990 to 2014 and the Nordpred package was employed to project trends from 2015 to 2029.Results:
Between 1990 and 2014, a total of 3,258 cases were diagnosed with ICD-O code C53 (invasive cervical cancer). Before 2005, an annual percentage change (APC) varied widely, with outliers in 1993 and 1999. The APC computed with the Joinpoint software decreased at -2.8% (95% CI;-4.5 to -1.1) per year on average. After 2005, a rise was noted until 2008, after which a drop became apparent with an APC of -8.0% (95% CI; -14.5 to -1.1) per year on average. Both period and cohort effects played a role in shaping the decrease in incidence. The three projection method suggested that incidence rates would continue to decrease in the future.Conclusions:
A decreasing trend in incidence of cervical cancer in Khon Kaen was noted from 1990 to 2014 with a prediction of continuous decrease until 2029. Maintenance and improvement of the screening program is advised.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Neoplasias do Colo do Útero
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Sistema de Registros
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Detecção Precoce de Câncer
Tipo de estudo:
Diagnostic_studies
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Etiology_studies
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Incidence_studies
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Observational_studies
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
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Screening_studies
Limite:
Adult
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Aged
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Aged80
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Female
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Humans
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Male
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Middle aged
País/Região como assunto:
Asia
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2019
Tipo de documento:
Article