Development and validation of a predictive model for incident type 2 diabetes in middle-aged Mexican adults: the metabolic syndrome cohort.
BMC Endocr Disord
; 19(1): 41, 2019 Apr 28.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-31030672
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Mexico. Here, we aimed to report incidence rates (IR) of type 2 diabetes in middle-aged apparently-healthy Mexican adults, identify risk factors associated to ID and develop a predictive model for ID in a high-risk population.METHODS:
Prospective 3-year observational cohort, comprised of apparently-healthy adults from urban settings of central Mexico in whom demographic, anthropometric and biochemical data was collected. We evaluated risk factors for ID using Cox proportional hazard regression and developed predictive models for ID.RESULTS:
We included 7636 participants of whom 6144 completed follow-up. We observed 331 ID cases (IR 21.9 per 1000 person-years, 95%CI 21.37-22.47). Risk factors for ID included family history of diabetes, age, abdominal obesity, waist-height ratio, impaired fasting glucose (IFG), HOMA2-IR and metabolic syndrome. Early-onset ID was also high (IR 14.77 per 1000 person-years, 95%CI 14.21-15.35), and risk factors included HOMA-IR and IFG. Our ID predictive model included age, hypertriglyceridemia, IFG, hypertension and abdominal obesity as predictors (Dxy = 0.487, c-statistic = 0.741) and had higher predictive accuracy compared to FINDRISC and Cambridge risk scores.CONCLUSIONS:
ID in apparently healthy middle-aged Mexican adults is currently at an alarming rate. The constructed models can be implemented to predict diabetes risk and represent the largest prospective effort for the study metabolic diseases in Latin-American population.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Biomarcadores
/
Modelos Estatísticos
/
Medição de Risco
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Síndrome Metabólica
/
Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2
Tipo de estudo:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Etiology_studies
/
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Adult
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
/
Middle aged
País/Região como assunto:
Mexico
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2019
Tipo de documento:
Article