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Development and validation of a predictive model for incident type 2 diabetes in middle-aged Mexican adults: the metabolic syndrome cohort.
Arellano-Campos, Olimpia; Gómez-Velasco, Donaji V; Bello-Chavolla, Omar Yaxmehen; Cruz-Bautista, Ivette; Melgarejo-Hernandez, Marco A; Muñoz-Hernandez, Liliana; Guillén, Luz E; Garduño-Garcia, Jose de Jesus; Alvirde, Ulices; Ono-Yoshikawa, Yukiko; Choza-Romero, Ricardo; Sauque-Reyna, Leobardo; Garay-Sevilla, Maria Eugenia; Malacara-Hernandez, Juan Manuel; Tusie-Luna, Maria Teresa; Gutierrez-Robledo, Luis Miguel; Gómez-Pérez, Francisco J; Rojas, Rosalba; Aguilar-Salinas, Carlos A.
Afiliação
  • Arellano-Campos O; Unidad de Investigación de Enfermedades Metabólicas, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Vasco de Quiroga 15, 14000, Mexico City, Mexico.
  • Gómez-Velasco DV; Unidad de Investigación de Enfermedades Metabólicas, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Vasco de Quiroga 15, 14000, Mexico City, Mexico.
  • Bello-Chavolla OY; Unidad de Investigación de Enfermedades Metabólicas, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Vasco de Quiroga 15, 14000, Mexico City, Mexico.
  • Cruz-Bautista I; MD/PhD (PECEM) Program, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico.
  • Melgarejo-Hernandez MA; Unidad de Investigación de Enfermedades Metabólicas, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Vasco de Quiroga 15, 14000, Mexico City, Mexico.
  • Muñoz-Hernandez L; Departamento de Endocrinología, Metabolismo del Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Mexico City, Mexico.
  • Guillén LE; Unidad de Investigación de Enfermedades Metabólicas, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Vasco de Quiroga 15, 14000, Mexico City, Mexico.
  • Garduño-Garcia JJ; Departamento de Endocrinología, Metabolismo del Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Mexico City, Mexico.
  • Alvirde U; Hospital General Regional No. 251, Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social, Mexico City, Mexico.
  • Ono-Yoshikawa Y; Unidad de Investigación de Enfermedades Metabólicas, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Vasco de Quiroga 15, 14000, Mexico City, Mexico.
  • Choza-Romero R; Centro Médico Ono Aguascalientes, Mexico City, Mexico.
  • Sauque-Reyna L; Centro Médico Ono Aguascalientes, Mexico City, Mexico.
  • Garay-Sevilla ME; Unidad Metabólica y Cardiovascular, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico.
  • Malacara-Hernandez JM; Instituto de Investigaciones Médicas, Universidad de Guanajuato, Leon, Guanajuato, Mexico.
  • Tusie-Luna MT; Instituto de Investigaciones Médicas, Universidad de Guanajuato, Leon, Guanajuato, Mexico.
  • Gutierrez-Robledo LM; Unidad de Biología Molecular y Medicina Genómica, Instituto de Investigaciones Biomédicas, Mexico City, Mexico.
  • Gómez-Pérez FJ; Instituto Nacional de Geriatria, Mexico City, Mexico.
  • Rojas R; Departamento de Endocrinología, Metabolismo del Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Mexico City, Mexico.
  • Aguilar-Salinas CA; Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico.
BMC Endocr Disord ; 19(1): 41, 2019 Apr 28.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31030672
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Mexico. Here, we aimed to report incidence rates (IR) of type 2 diabetes in middle-aged apparently-healthy Mexican adults, identify risk factors associated to ID and develop a predictive model for ID in a high-risk population.

METHODS:

Prospective 3-year observational cohort, comprised of apparently-healthy adults from urban settings of central Mexico in whom demographic, anthropometric and biochemical data was collected. We evaluated risk factors for ID using Cox proportional hazard regression and developed predictive models for ID.

RESULTS:

We included 7636 participants of whom 6144 completed follow-up. We observed 331 ID cases (IR 21.9 per 1000 person-years, 95%CI 21.37-22.47). Risk factors for ID included family history of diabetes, age, abdominal obesity, waist-height ratio, impaired fasting glucose (IFG), HOMA2-IR and metabolic syndrome. Early-onset ID was also high (IR 14.77 per 1000 person-years, 95%CI 14.21-15.35), and risk factors included HOMA-IR and IFG. Our ID predictive model included age, hypertriglyceridemia, IFG, hypertension and abdominal obesity as predictors (Dxy = 0.487, c-statistic = 0.741) and had higher predictive accuracy compared to FINDRISC and Cambridge risk scores.

CONCLUSIONS:

ID in apparently healthy middle-aged Mexican adults is currently at an alarming rate. The constructed models can be implemented to predict diabetes risk and represent the largest prospective effort for the study metabolic diseases in Latin-American population.
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Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Biomarcadores / Modelos Estatísticos / Medição de Risco / Síndrome Metabólica / Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 Tipo de estudo: Diagnostic_studies / Etiology_studies / Observational_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Limite: Adult / Female / Humans / Male / Middle aged País/Região como assunto: Mexico Idioma: En Ano de publicação: 2019 Tipo de documento: Article

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Biomarcadores / Modelos Estatísticos / Medição de Risco / Síndrome Metabólica / Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 Tipo de estudo: Diagnostic_studies / Etiology_studies / Observational_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Limite: Adult / Female / Humans / Male / Middle aged País/Região como assunto: Mexico Idioma: En Ano de publicação: 2019 Tipo de documento: Article