Transfers to Hemodialysis Among US Patients Initiating Renal Replacement Therapy With Peritoneal Dialysis.

ABSTRACT

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Identifying patients who are likely to transfer from peritoneal dialysis (PD) to hemodialysis (HD) before transition could improve their subsequent care. This study developed a prediction tool for transition from PD to HD. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Adults initiating PD between January 2008 and December 2011, followed up through June 2015, for whom data were available in the US Renal Data System (USRDS). PREDICTORS Clinical characteristics at PD initiation and peritonitis claims. OUTCOMES: Transfer to HD, with the competing outcomes of death and kidney transplantation. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Outcomes were ascertained from USRDS treatment history files. Subdistribution hazards (competing-risk) models were fit using clinical characteristics at PD initiation. A nomogram was developed to classify patient risk at 1, 2, 3, and 4 years. These data were used to generate quartiles of HD transfer risk; this quartile score was incorporated into a cause-specific hazards model that additionally included a time-dependent variable for peritonitis. RESULTS: 29,573 incident PD patients were followed up for a median of 21.6 (interquartile range, 9.0-42.3) months, during which 41.2% transferred to HD, 25.9% died, 17.1% underwent kidney transplantation, and the rest were followed up to the study end in June 2015. Claims for peritonitis were present in 11,733 (40.2%) patients. The proportion of patients still receiving PD decreased to <50% at 22.6 months and 14.2% at 5 years. Peritonitis was associated with a higher rate of HD transfer (HR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.76-1.89; P < 0.001), as were higher quartile scores of HD transfer risk (HRs of 1.31 [95% CI, 1.25-1.37), 1.51 [95% CI, 1.45-1.58], and 1.78 [95% CI, 1.71-1.86] for quartiles 2, 3, and 4 compared to quartile 1 [P < 0.001 for all]). LIMITATIONS: Observational data, reliant on the Medical Evidence Report and Medicare claims. CONCLUSIONS: A large majority of the patients who initiated renal replacement therapy with PD discontinued this modality within 5 years. Transfer to HD was the most common outcome. Patient characteristics and comorbid diseases influenced the probability of HD transfer, death, and transplantation, as did episodes of peritonitis.