Integrating phase 2 into phase 3 based on an intermediate endpoint while accounting for a cure proportion-With an application to the design of a clinical trial in acute myeloid leukemia.
Pharm Stat
; 19(1): 44-58, 2020 01.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-31461220
ABSTRACT
For a trial with primary endpoint overall survival for a molecule with curative potential, statistical methods that rely on the proportional hazards assumption may underestimate the power and the time to final analysis. We show how a cure proportion model can be used to get the necessary number of events and appropriate timing via simulation. If phase 1 results for the new drug are exceptional and/or the medical need in the target population is high, a phase 3 trial might be initiated after phase 1. Building in a futility interim analysis into such a pivotal trial may mitigate the uncertainty of moving directly to phase 3. However, if cure is possible, overall survival might not be mature enough at the interim to support a futility decision. We propose to base this decision on an intermediate endpoint that is sufficiently associated with survival. Planning for such an interim can be interpreted as making a randomized phase 2 trial a part of the pivotal trial If stopped at the interim, the trial data would be analyzed, and a decision on a subsequent phase 3 trial would be made. If the trial continues at the interim, then the phase 3 trial is already underway. To select a futility boundary, a mechanistic simulation model that connects the intermediate endpoint and survival is proposed. We illustrate how this approach was used to design a pivotal randomized trial in acute myeloid leukemia and discuss historical data that informed the simulation model and operational challenges when implementing it.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Projetos de Pesquisa
/
Leucemia Mieloide Aguda
/
Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto
/
Modelos Estatísticos
Tipo de estudo:
Clinical_trials
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2020
Tipo de documento:
Article