Comprehensive Profiling of Zika Virus Risk with Natural and Artificial Mitigating Strategies, United States.
Emerg Infect Dis
; 26(4): 700-710, 2020 04.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-32043959
ABSTRACT
Zika virus is transitioning to become a long-term public health challenge, and countries should remain informed of the risk for emergence. We developed a stochastic epidemiologic model to profile risk for Zika virus emergence, including trimester-specific fetal risk across time, in all 3,208 counties in the United States, including Puerto Rico. Validation against known transmission in North America demonstrated accuracy to predict epidemic dynamics and absolute case counts across scales (R2 = 0.98). We found that, although sporadic single transmission events could occur in most US counties, outbreaks will likely be restricted to the Gulf Coast region and to late spring through autumn. Seasonal fluctuations in birth rates will confer natural population-level protection against early-trimester infections. Overall, outbreak control will be more effective and efficient than prevention, and vaccination will be most effective at >70% coverage. Our county-level risk profiles should serve as a critical resource for resource allocation.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Zika virus
/
Infecção por Zika virus
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
País/Região como assunto:
America do norte
/
Caribe
/
Puerto rico
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2020
Tipo de documento:
Article