A Nomogram for Individual Prediction of Poor Prognosis After Radical Surgery in Patients with Primary Pancreatic Duct Adenocarcinoma.
Med Sci Monit
; 26: e918882, 2020 Feb 23.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-32088726
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND Pancreatic cancer is a highly malignant tumor characterized by poor prognosis. TNM stage cannot always provide accurate prediction of prognosis, which is vital for individualized treatment. Therefore, a novel way to identify patients with poor prognosis after radical surgery is urgently needed. MATERIAL AND METHODS The nomogram was established based on a discovery cohort that included 554 patients with PDAC who had received radical surgery from 2012 to 2016. The clinicopathological data were collected. Poor prognosis was evaluated using 25 features, in which appropriate features for a prediction model were identified. A prediction model incorporating the selected features was established. The discriminative capacity was assessed by C-index, calibration by calibration plot, and clinical usefulness by decision curve. The bootstrapping approach was used to perform internal validation. RESULTS Characteristics included in the nomogram were coronary artery disease and stroke history, elevated CA125, AJCC stage >II, R0 resection, operating time >6 h, poor differentiation, nerve invasion, length of stay >30 days, and postoperative complications. A C-index of 0.713 indicated good discrimination of the prediction model, and the calibration curve showed acceptable calibration. Survival analysis showed that this model had better discriminative capacity than the AJCC staging system and could distinguish relatively good prognosis from poor prognosis in patients at stage II (especially IIa) and IV. CONCLUSIONS Our study presents a valid and practical model to predict prognosis of pancreatic cancer patients, which contributes to individualized therapy by assisting surgeons to predict poor prognosis in patients who received radical surgery.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Neoplasias Pancreáticas
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Carcinoma Ductal Pancreático
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Nomogramas
Tipo de estudo:
Diagnostic_studies
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Etiology_studies
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Adult
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Aged
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Aged80
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Female
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Humans
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Male
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Middle aged
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2020
Tipo de documento:
Article