Reconstruction of Transmission Pairs for Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Mainland China: Estimation of Superspreading Events, Serial Interval, and Hazard of Infection.
Clin Infect Dis
; 71(12): 3163-3167, 2020 12 15.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-32556265
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Knowledge on the epidemiological features and transmission patterns of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is accumulating. Detailed line-list data with household settings can advance the understanding of COVID-19 transmission dynamics.METHODS:
A unique database with detailed demographic characteristics, travel history, social relationships, and epidemiological timelines for 1407 transmission pairs that formed 643 transmission clusters in mainland China was reconstructed from 9120 COVID-19 confirmed cases reported during 15 January-29 February 2020. Statistical model fittings were used to identify the superspreading events and estimate serial interval distributions. Age- and sex-stratified hazards of infection were estimated for household vs nonhousehold transmissions.RESULTS:
There were 34 primary cases identified as superspreaders, with 5 superspreading events occurred within households. Mean and standard deviation of serial intervals were estimated as 5.0 (95% credible interval [CrI], 4.4-5.5) days and 5.2 (95% CrI, 4.9-5.7) days for household transmissions and 5.2 (95% CrI, 4.6-5.8) and 5.3 (95% CrI, 4.9-5.7) days for nonhousehold transmissions, respectively. The hazard of being infected outside of households is higher for people aged 18-64 years, whereas hazard of being infected within households is higher for young and old people.CONCLUSIONS:
Nonnegligible frequency of superspreading events, short serial intervals, and a higher risk of being infected outside of households for male people of working age indicate a significant barrier to the identification and management of COVID-19 cases, which requires enhanced nonpharmaceutical interventions to mitigate this pandemic.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
COVID-19
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Adolescent
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Adult
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Aged
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Child
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Child, preschool
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Humans
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Infant
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Male
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Middle aged
País/Região como assunto:
Asia
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2020
Tipo de documento:
Article