Quantitative microbial risk assessment of SARS-CoV-2 for workers in wastewater treatment plants.

Faecal-oral transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is yet to be validated, but it is a critical issue and additional research is needed to elucidate the risks of the novel coronavirus in sanitation systems. This is the first study that investigates the potential health risks of SARS-CoV-2 in sewage to wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) workers. A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is applied for three COVID-19 scenarios (moderate, aggressive and extreme) to study the effects of different stages of the pandemic in terms of percentage of infected population on the probability of infection to WWTP workers. A dose-response model for SARS-CoV-1 (as a surrogate pathogen) is assumed in the QMRA for SARS-CoV-2 using an exponential model with k = 4.1 × 102. Literature data are incorporated to inform assumptions for calculating the viral load, develop the model, and derive a tolerable infection risk. Results reveal that estimates of viral RNA in sewage at the entrance of WWTPs ranged from 4.14 × 101 to 5.23 × 103 GC·mL-1 (viable virus concentration from 0.04 to 5.23 PFU·mL-1, respectively). In addition, estimated risks for the aggressive and extreme scenarios (2.6 × 10-3 and 1.3 × 10-2, respectively) were likely to be above the derived tolerable infection risk for SARS-CoV-2 of 5.5 × 10-4 pppy, thus reinforcing the concern of sewage systems as a possible transmission pathway of SARS-CoV-2. These findings are helpful as an early health warning tool and in prioritizing upcoming risk management strategies, such as Emergency Response Plans (ERPs) for water and sanitation operators during the COVID-19 and future pandemics.