Prediction of pre-eclampsia-related complications in women with suspected or confirmed pre-eclampsia: development and internal validation of clinical prediction model.
Ultrasound Obstet Gynecol
; 58(5): 698-704, 2021 Nov.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-33030757
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
A model that can predict reliably the risk of pre-eclampsia (PE)-related pregnancy complications does not exist. The aim of this study was to develop and validate internally a clinical prediction model to predict the risk of a composite outcome of PE-related maternal and fetal complications within 7, 14 and 30 days of testing in women with suspected or confirmed PE.METHODS:
The data for this study were derived from a prospective, multicenter, observational cohort study on women with a singleton pregnancy and suspected or confirmed PE at 20 to < 37 weeks' gestation. For the development of the prediction model, the possible contribution of clinical and standard laboratory variables, as well as the biomarkers soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1), placental growth factor (PlGF) and their ratio, in the prediction of a composite outcome of PE-related complications, consisting of maternal and fetal adverse events within 7, 14 and 30 days, was explored using multivariable competing-risks regression analysis. The discriminative ability of the model was assessed using the concordance (c-) statistic. A bootstrap validation procedure with 500 replications was used to correct the estimate of the prediction model performance for optimism and to compute a shrinkage factor for the regression coefficients to correct for overfitting.RESULTS:
Among 384 women with suspected or confirmed PE, 96 (25%) had an adverse PE-related outcome at any time after hospital admission. Important predictors of adverse PE-related outcome included sFlt-1/PlGF ratio, gestational age at the time of biomarker measurement and protein-to-creatinine ratio as continuous variables. The c-statistics (corrected for optimism) for developing a PE-related complication within 7, 14 and 30 days were 0.89, 0.88 and 0.87, respectively. There was limited overfitting, as indicated by a shrinkage factor of 0.91.CONCLUSIONS:
We propose a simple clinical prediction model with good discriminative performance to predict PE-related complications. Determination of its usefulness in clinical practice awaits further investigation and external validation. © 2020 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Pré-Eclâmpsia
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Complicações na Gravidez
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Diagnóstico Pré-Natal
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Modelos Estatísticos
Tipo de estudo:
Clinical_trials
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Diagnostic_studies
/
Etiology_studies
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Observational_studies
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Adult
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Female
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Humans
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Pregnancy
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article