Systems medicine 2030: A Delphi study on implementation in the German healthcare system.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Systems medicine is based on approaches taken from systems biology, omics research, bio-informatics and network theory. It promises to facilitate a better understanding of the causes of diseases, detection at an earlier stage, and the use of tailor-made approaches to prevention and therapy. This study provides information on how systems medicine could be incorporated into the German healthcare system. METHODS: In a Policy Delphi, consensus and divergence was elicited on whether experts believed systems medicine could be incorporated into the German healthcare system by 2030. Additionally, factors that could influence the implementation process were analysed. 11 theses on potential systems medicine developments and 193 arguments on influencing factors were evaluated. Experts from health and health-related fields were selected using "purposive sampling". RESULTS: The experts interviewed expressed their trust in the provision of a legal-political framework, though they remained uncertain as to whether the necessary social discourse on the ethical and cultural questions surrounding systems medicine would occur. They do not (currently) expect systems medicine to be implemented by 2030. CONCLUSION: Systems medicine is currently regarded as a visionary concept. As such, it would be premature to attempt to judge the success of the translation process at this stage. The results can help with the identification of the challenges involved in implementation, and the action required to achieve this aim.