Predicting the effects of climate change on incubation in reptiles: methodological advances and new directions.

ABSTRACT

The unprecedented advancement of global climate change is affecting thermal conditions across spatial and temporal scales. Reptiles with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) are uniquely vulnerable to even fine-scale variation in incubation conditions and are a model system for investigating the impacts of shifting temperatures on key physiological and life-history traits. The ways in which current and predicted future climatic conditions translate from macro- to ultra-fine scale temperature traces in subterranean nests is insufficiently understood. Reliably predicting the ways in which fine-scale, daily and seasonally fluctuating nest temperatures influence embryonic development and offspring phenotypes is a goal that remains constrained by many of the same logistical challenges that have persisted throughout more than four decades of research on TSD. However, recent advances in microclimate and developmental modeling should allow us to move farther away from relatively coarse metrics with limited predictive capacity and towards a fully mechanistic model of TSD that can predict incubation conditions and phenotypic outcomes for a variety of reptile species across space and time and for any climate scenario.