Development and Validation of a Chronic Kidney Disease Prediction Model for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Thailand.
Value Health Reg Issues
; 24: 157-166, 2021 May.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-33662821
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES:
The objective of this study was to investigate predictors and develop risk equations for stage-3 chronic kidney disease (CKD) in Thai patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM).METHODS:
A retrospective cohort study was conducted in patients with type 2 DM. The outcome was the development of stage-3 CKD. The data set was randomly split into training and validation data sets. Cox proportional hazard regression was used for model development. Discrimination (Harrell's C statistic) and calibration (the Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square test and survival probability curve) were applied to evaluate model performance.RESULTS:
In total, 2178 type 2 DM patients without stage-3 CKD, visiting the hospital from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2017, were recruited, with median follow-up time of 1.29 years (interquartile range, 0.5-2.5 years); 385 (17.68%) subjects had developed stage-3 CKD. The final predictors included age, male sex, urinary albumin to creatinine ratio, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and hemoglobin A1c. Two 3-year stage-3 CKD risk models, model 1 (laboratory model) and model 2 (simplified model), had the C statistic in validation data sets of 0.890 and 0.812, respectively.CONCLUSIONS:
Two 3-year stage-3 CKD risk models were developed for Thai patients with type 2 DM. Both models have good discrimination and calibration. These stage-3 CKD prediction models could equip health providers with tools for clinical management and supporting patient education.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2
/
Insuficiência Renal Crônica
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
/
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
/
Male
País/Região como assunto:
Asia
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article