Mathematical model optimized for prediction and health care planning for COVID-19. / Modelo matemático optimizado para la predicción y planificación de la asistencia sanitaria por la COVID-19.
Med Intensiva (Engl Ed)
; 2021 Mar 06.
Article
em En, Es
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-33926752
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
The COVID-19 pandemic has threatened to collapse hospital and ICU services, and it has affected the care programs for non-COVID patients. The objective was to develop a mathematical model designed to optimize predictions related to the need for hospitalization and ICU admission by COVID-19 patients.DESIGN:
Prospective study.SETTING:
Province of Granada (Spain). POPULATION COVID-19 patients hospitalized, admitted to ICU, recovered and died from March 15 to September 22, 2020. STUDY VARIABLES The number of patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 and hospitalized or admitted to ICU for COVID-19.RESULTS:
The data reported by hospitals was used to develop a mathematical model that reflects the flow of the population among the different interest groups in relation to COVID-19. This tool allows to analyse different scenarios based on socio-health restriction measures, and to forecast the number of people infected, hospitalized and admitted to the ICU.CONCLUSIONS:
The mathematical model is capable of providing predictions on the evolution of the COVID-19 sufficiently in advance as to anticipate the peaks of prevalence and hospital and ICU care demands, and also the appearance of periods in which the care for non-COVID patients could be intensified.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Tipo de estudo:
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Idioma:
En
/
Es
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article