The performance of an integrated model including retinal information in predicting childhood hypertension.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to examine the association of an integrated model (composed of retinal arteriolar caliber, height, and sex) with blood pressure (BP) among a group of Chinese children, and assess the predictive value of the integrated model for childhood hypertension. METHODS: This study included 1460 candidates aged 12.634 ± 0.420 years. Height, weight, waist circumference, and BP were obtained and ophthalmological measurements were taken. The computer-imaging program (IVAN, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI) was used to measure calibers of retinal vessels. Receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC) analyses were performed to assess the accuracy of the integrated model as a diagnostic test of elevated BP in children. RESULTS: The accuracy of the integrated model (assessed by area under the curve) for identifying elevated BP was 0.777 (95% confidence interval 0.742-0.812). The optimal threshold of the integrated model for defining hypertension was 0.153, and the calculation formula for the specific predictive risk was Logit (p/1 - p) = -5.666 - 0.261 × retinal arteriolar caliber + 0.945 × sex + 0.438 × height. In identifying elevated BP, the sensitivity and specificity were 0.711 and 0.736, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The model containing eye message is a comprehensive and relatively effective index to identify elevated BP in 12-year-old children, which can offer assistance to further understand childhood microcirculation disease. IMPACT We firstly incorporated retinal vascular diameter, sex, and height into one integrated model to identify hypertension in 12-year-old children. The current discrimination of hypertension in children is difficult. There have been some studies to simplify the diagnosis of children's hypertension, but they were limited to anthropometric measurements. We proposed a composed model containing microcirculation information to predict childhood hypertension. Based on the knowledge that microcirculation is not only a means to study the manifestations but also early pathogenic correlates of hypertension, the combined model containing microcirculation message as a method may provide new insights into the diagnosis of childhood hypertension.