Investigating the relationship of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus RNA detection between adult/sow farm and wean-to-market age categories.

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is a disease caused by the PRRS virus (PRRSV) that has spread globally in the last 30 years and causes huge economic losses every year. This research aims to 1) investigate the relationship between the PRRSV detection in two age categories (wean-to-market and adult/sow farm), and 2) examine the extent to which the wean-to-market PRRSV positive rate forecasts the adult/sow farm PRRSV positive rate. The data we used are the PRRSV RNA detection results between 2007 and 2019 integrated by the US Swine Disease Reporting System project that represent 95% of all porcine submissions tested in the US National Animal Health Network. We first use statistical tools to investigate to what extent the increase in PRRSV positive submissions in the wean-to-market is related to the PRRSV increase in adult/sow farms. The statistical analysis confirms that an increase in the PRRSV positive rate of wean-to-market precedes the increase in the adult/sow farms to a large extent. Then we create the dynamic exponentially weighted moving average control charts to identify out-of-control points (i.e., signals) in the PRRSV rates for both wean-to-market and adult/sow farms. This control-chart-based analysis finds that 78% of PRRSV signals in the wean-to-market are followed by a PRRSV rate signal in the adult/sow farms within eight weeks. We expect that our findings will help the producers and veterinarians to justify and reinforce the implementation of bio-security and bio-contaminant practices to curb disease spread across farms.