[Cost-effectiveness of anti-tumor associated antigen autoantibody screening for hepatocellular carcinoma in the population with chronic hepatitis B-related cirrhosis].

ABSTRACT

Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of anti-tumor associated antigen autoantibody (TAAb) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening in cirrhosis population with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Methods: A simulated cohort of 40-year-old patients with CHB cirrhosis was established with a sample size of 10 000. Using TAAb screening alone or TAAb and AFP screening in parallel (TAAb + AFP) as the research strategy, and liver ultrasound and AFP screening in parallel (liver ultrasound + AFP) as the control strategy, the decision analysis Markov model was constructed and the model validity was evaluated. The 6-month cycle was simulated using TreeAge Pro 2020 software. Cost and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) were calculated. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was used to compare the two strategies, and sensitivity analysis was used to evaluate the uncertainty of results. Results: The Markov model had a total of 11 outcomes, of which 7 were natural outcomes and 4 wereclinical intervention outcomes, and the goodness of fit was 0.969. The lifetime screening cost of TAAb+AFP strategy for HCC screening was 249 612 yuan/case, and the QALY per capita was 7.704 years. Compared with liver ultrasound +AFP strategy (247 805 yuan/case), the total health cost increased by 1 807 yuan/case, and the QALY obtained was 0.014. The ICER was 127 635 yuan /QALY. When the TAAb screening fee was higher than 889.552 yuan, or the discount rate was higher than 0.068, or the antiviral treatment compliance was lower than 45.1%, ICER > 212 676 yuan /QALY. When the single TAAb screening fee was 400-600 yuan, the TAAB+AFP strategy had cost effective value. When the willingness to pay was 70 892, 141 784 and 212 676 yuan /QALY, the probability of cost-effectiveness of TAAb+AFP strategy was 70.6%, 75.3% and 77.8%, respectively. Conclusion: It is cost-effective to use TAAb+AFP for early screening of liver cancer in Chinese population with CHB cirrhosis.