Identification of a high-risk group for brain metastases in non-small cell lung cancer patients.

PURPOSE: Identification of a high-risk group of brain metastases (BM) in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) could lead to early interventions and probably better prognosis. The objective of the study was to identify this group by generating a multivariable model with recognized and accessible risk factors. METHODS: A retrospective cohort from patients seen at a single center during 2010-2020, was divided into a training (TD) and validation (VD) datasets, associations with BM were measured in the TD with logit, variables significantly associated were used to generate a multivariate model. Model´s performance was measured with the AUC/C-statistic, Akaike information criterion, and Brier score. RESULTS: From 570 patients with NSCLC who met the strict eligibility criteria a TD and VD were randomly assembled, no significant differences were found amid both datasets. Variables associated with BM in the multivariate logit analyses were age [P 0.001, OR 0.96 (95% CI 0.93-0.98)]; mutational status positive [P 0.027, OR 1.96 (95% CI 1.07-3.56); and carcinoembryonic antigen levels [P 0.016, OR 1.001 (95% CI 1.000-1.003). BM were diagnosed in 24% of the whole cohort. Stratification into a high-risk group after simplification of the model, displayed a frequency of BM of 63% (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: A multivariate model comprising age, carcinoembryonic antigen levels, and mutation status allowed the identification of a truly high-risk group of BM in NSCLC patients.