Validation and threshold identification of a prescription drug monitoring program clinical opioid risk metric with the WHO alcohol, smoking, and substance involvement screening test.

BACKGROUND: Prescription drug monitoring programs (PDMPs) are critical for pharmacists to identify risky opioid medication use. We performed an independent evaluation of the PDMP-based Narcotic Score (NS) metric. METHODS: This study was a one-time, cross-sectional health assessment within 19 pharmacies from a national chain among adults picking-up opioid medications. The NS metric is a 3-digit composite indicator. The WHO Alcohol, Smoking, and Substance Involvement Screening Test (ASSIST) was the gold-standard to which the NS metric was compared. Machine learning determined optimal risk thresholds; Receiver Operating Characteristic curves and Spearman (P) and Kappa (K) coefficients analyzed concurrent validity. Regression analyses evaluated participant characteristics associated with misclassification. RESULTS: The NS metric showed fair concurrent validity (area under the curve≥0.70; K=0.35; P = 0.37, p < 0.001). The ASSIST and NS metric categorized 37% of participants as low-risk (i.e., not needing screening/intervention) and 32.3% as moderate/high-risk (i.e., needing screening/intervention). Further, 17.2% were categorized as low ASSIST risk but moderate/high NS metric risk, termed false positives. These reported disability (OR=3.12), poor general health (OR=0.66), and/or greater pain severity/interference (OR=1.12/1.09; all p < 0.05; i.e., needing unmanaged-pain screening/intervention). A total of 13.4% were categorized as moderate/high ASSIST risk but low NS metric risk, termed false negatives. These reported greater overdose history (OR=1.24) and/or substance use (OR=1.81-12.66; all p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The NS metric could serve as a useful initial universal prescription opioid-risk screener given its: 1) low-burden (i.e., no direct assessment); 2) high accuracy (86.5%) of actionable data identifying low-risk patients and those needing opioid use/unmanaged pain screening/intervention; and 3) broad availability.